| 周建中,何中政,贾本军,张勇传.水电站长中短期嵌套预报调度耦合实时来水系统动力学建模方法研究及应用[J].水利学报,2020,51(6):642-652 |
| 水电站长中短期嵌套预报调度耦合实时来水系统动力学建模方法研究及应用 |
| Research and application of system dynamic modeling method for long-term,medium-term and short-term nested forecasting and dispatching coupled real-time inflow of hydropower station |
| 投稿时间：2019-09-17 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190664 |
| 中文关键词: 系统动力学反馈 期望指导过程线 长中短期嵌套 预报调度 水电站 |
| 英文关键词: system dynamic feedback mechanism expected guidance scheduling process line long medium and short term hierarchical nesting forecasting and dispatching hydropower station |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（U1865202，91547208）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（51579107）；国家十三五重点研发计划课题（2016YFC0402205） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水电站优化调度是水电能源系统优化运行与管理研究领域的关键科学问题，已有水电站优化调度研究较少考虑不同尺度调度模型间的衔接，长、中、短期优化调度相互孤立，彼此之间缺乏耦合机制，在指导水电站实际运行中存在不足。为此，研究建立了水电站长中短期嵌套预报调度模型，并引入系统动力学反馈机制，提出了一种水电站长中短期嵌套耦合实时来水系统动力学预报调度模型。长、中、短期调度模型分层嵌套，中长期预报调度结果作为短期调度的"期望指导过程线"，根据水电站预报来水和面临日实时来水存在误差所导致的水位偏差进行实时反馈、动态修正调度决策，从而指导水电站做出更为合理的调度决策。为检验本文模型方法的有效性，研究选取了三峡水电站作为研究对象进行实例验证。实验结果表明：研究所提出的模型方法指导水电站运行相比随机动态规划和常规调度图方法全年发电量提升效果明显，在2018年来水条件下模拟调度结果发电量分别提高了2.73%和2.31%，显著提高了来水不确定性条件下水电站运行发电效益，为解决水电站随机来水条件下长中短期嵌套预报调度实际工程技术难题提供了一种可行的实践理论方法工具，具有十分重要的理论研究意义和工程应用价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The existing optimal dispatching theory of hydropower station seldom considers the relationship between dispatching models with different scales. The different scale forecast and operation are isolated from each other,which makes it difficult to guide the actual operation of hydropower station. Therefore,the coupling nesting relationship between different scale forecast and operation is studied. The different scale forecast and operation models of hydropower station coupling real-time inflow and system dynamic feedback mechanism is proposed. The different scale forecast and operation models of hydropower station are hierarchically nested. The results of medium-term and long-term forecasting and dispatching are regarded as the "expected guidance process line" for short-term dispatching. Real-time feedback and dynamic correction of dispatching decisions are made based on the inflow forecast of hydropower station and the water level deviation caused by the forecast errors,which guide hydropower stations to make more reasonable dispatching decisions. In order to test the proposed method in this paper, the Three Gorges hydropower station is selected as the research object. The results show that:compared with the stochastic dynamic programming and the conventional dispatching chart,the proposed method can significantly improves the power generation efficiency of the hydropower station under the uncertain inflow. |
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