文章摘要
岳瑜素,王宏伟,江恩慧,彭绪庶,时芳欣.滩区自然-经济-社会协同的可持续发展模式[J].水利学报,2020,51(9):1131-1137,1148
滩区自然-经济-社会协同的可持续发展模式
Sustainable development model of floodplain based on coordination of nature, economy and society
投稿时间:2020-07-27  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20200570
中文关键词: 黄河下游滩区  复合系统  系统动力学模型  可持续发展模式
英文关键词: floodplain in the lower Yellow River  composite system  system dynamics model  sustainable development model
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407403);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2017-01,HKY-JBYW-2016-08,HKY-JBYW-2018-06,HKY-JBYW-2019-10);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51809103)
作者单位E-mail
岳瑜素 黄河水利科学研究院, 河南 郑州 450003
水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心, 河南 郑州 450003 
 
王宏伟 中国社会科学院 数量经济与技术经济研究所, 北京 100732  
江恩慧 黄河水利科学研究院, 河南 郑州 450003 jiangenhui@hky.yrcc.gov.cn 
彭绪庶 中国社会科学院 数量经济与技术经济研究所, 北京 100732  
时芳欣 黄河水利科学研究院, 河南 郑州 450003
水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心, 河南 郑州 450003 
 
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中文摘要:
      黄河下游滩区既是行洪、滞洪、沉沙场所,又是滩区民众生产生活的家园。多年来滩区行洪输沙的自然功能,与社会经济发展的社会服务功能协同发展问题一直是黄河下游滩区治理关注的焦点。本文在分析黄河下游宽滩区滞洪沉沙和社会经济发展的基础上,以自然-经济-社会协调发展为目标,构建适用于黄河滩区的系统动力学模型,针对黄河下游滩区最近10年间的社会经济数据进行仿真模拟研究。基于不同来水状态下的治理方案,分析不同量级洪水对滩区经济社会系统发展产生的影响,发现构建8000 m3/s防护堤方案对于稳定提高滩区农业收入水平具有重要作用,并提出新形势下滩区可持续发展的优化治理模式。
英文摘要:
      Floodplain of the lower Yellow River is not only a place for flood routing, flood detention and sediment silting, but also a homeland of the residents. For years, the synergetic development between the natural function of flood routing and sediment silting,and the social service function of socio-economic development,has always been the research focus of floodplain governance. In this paper,based on the analysis of flood detention, sediment silting and socio-economic development, a systematic dynamics model by using the last decades socio-economic data for the broad floodplain of the lower Yellow River was built, with the goals of coordinated natural, economic and social development. Then, through the model simulation, a series of development scenarios for floodplain were predicted under different conditions. Based on the treatment schemes under different inflow conditions, the impact of different magnitudes floods on the economic and social system development of the floodplain was analyzed. It is found that the construction of protection embankment scheme under the flood magnitude of 8000m3/s plays an important role in stabilizing and improving the agricultural income level in the floodplain. Further, the improved floodplain governance schemes of sustainable development have been put forward.
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