文章摘要
徐博,张弛,蒋云钟,黄强,王国庆,关铁生.供水系统可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性与多元要素的响应关系研究[J].水利学报,2020,51(12):1502-1513
供水系统可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性与多元要素的响应关系研究
Reliability-resilience-vulnerability of water supply system and its response relationship to multiple factors
投稿时间:2020-10-18  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20200853
中文关键词: 供水系统  可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性  多元弹性分析  水库调度  多要素分析
英文关键词: water supply system  reliability-resilience-vulnerability  multivariate elasticity  reservoir operation  multifactor analysis
基金项目:国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51925902);国家自然科学基金青年项目(51709034)
作者单位E-mail
徐博 大连理工大学 建设工程学部 水利工程学院, 辽宁 大连 116024  
张弛 大连理工大学 建设工程学部 水利工程学院, 辽宁 大连 116024 czhang@dlut.edu.cn 
蒋云钟 中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所, 北京 100038  
黄强 西安理工大学 水利水电学院, 陕西 西安 710077  
王国庆 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210029  
关铁生 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210029  
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中文摘要:
      城市供水系统受来水、需水、水库调蓄等多种因素的交织耦合影响,其评价指标体系亦涉及多个层面,仅依靠供水保证率无法体现极端干旱事件在局部时段内所造成的不利影响。研究多种因素与评价指标之间的关联关系,可用于快速、有针对性地识别出最有效的供水保障措施。本文以实验样本生成-样本模拟-样本数据挖掘为主线,采用随机抽样生成大量供水系统实验分析样本,基于SOP调度规则进行样本模拟,利用多元弹性回归分析挖掘样本数据。以标准净入流m、库容系数β将实验样本分为4类,研究了不同类型供水系统中年径流变差系数CV、需水率YI、库容系数β与系统可靠性、回弹性、脆弱性3类评价指标之间的普适性关联关系,定量比较了供水系统对多种影响因素变化的敏感程度。结果表明:(1)系统可靠性对3类影响因素变化的敏感程度呈现显著的边际效益递减规律,面向不同区域的来水-需水-库容特征,需要有针对性地选择不同的供水措施;(2)对于系统回弹性和脆弱性,不论何种类型的供水系统均与年径流变差系数CV的关联性最强,需水率YI其次,受库容系数β的影响程度最小,为改善系统回弹性与脆弱性,应从跨流域调水、备用应急水源建设、非常规水利用等方面来进行系统设计;(3)水量较充沛且水库调蓄能力也较强的系统在一般枯水年往往不会缺水,容易被忽视,但在特枯或连续枯水年仍面临缺水风险。
英文摘要:
      Urban water supply system is interwoven and coupled by various factors such as inflow, demand, and reservoir regulation, etc. The evaluation indexes of the system also involves many aspects, and the adverse impact caused by extreme drought events in local period cannot be reflected only by the water supply guarantee rate. The study on the correlation between various factors and evaluation indexes can be used to identify the most effective water supply guarantee measures quickly and pertinently, which is of great significance to the design, operation, and management of urban water supply system. This paper took experimental sample generation-sample simulation-sample data mining as the main line and uses random sampling to generate many experimental analysis samples of water supply system. Then the samples were simulated based on standard operation rule and the sample data was mined by multivariate elasticity regression analysis. According to the standard net inflow m and the capacity coefficient β, the samples were divided into four types. This paper quantitatively explored the general correlation between the variation coefficient of annual runoff CV, water use yield YI, and storage capacity coefficient β of the water supply system and three assessment indexes i.e.,system reliability,resilience,and vulnerability. The regression analysis result was further used for quantitatively comparing the sensitivity of multiple assessment indexes to changes in various factors. The results show that:(1) The sensitivity of system reliability to the change of three influencing factors presents a significant law of diminishing marginal benefit, and the characteristics of inflow-demand-storage capacity facing different regions require different water supply measures to be selected. (2) For system resilience and vulnerability, no matter what type of water supply system has the strongest correlation with annual runoff variation coefficient CV, followed by water demand rate YI and least affected by reservoir capacity coefficient β. Therefore,the system design should be carried out from the aspects of inter-basin water transfer, standby emergency source construction and unconventional water utilization. (3) The systems with abundant water and strong reservoir regulation and storage capacity are easy to be ignored because they will not be short of water in normal dry years. However, they are still faced with the risk of water shortage in special dry years or continuous dry years. The above measures have the most significant improvement effect on its resilience and vulnerability index.
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