文章摘要
梁辉,赵文光,郭胜山,涂劲,李德玉,廖建新.高拱坝-地基体系整体稳定概率地震风险分析[J].水利学报,2021,52(3):310-322
高拱坝-地基体系整体稳定概率地震风险分析
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis of overall stability of high arch dam-foundati
投稿时间:2020-06-20  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20200482
中文关键词: 高拱坝-地基体系  地震稳定性能  概率地震需求模型  地震危险性分析  地震易损性分析  地震风险分析
英文关键词: high arch dam-foundation system  seismic stability  probabilistic seismic demand model  seismic hazard  seismic vulnerability  seismic risk analysis
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401807);中国长江三峡集团公司科研项目(XLD/2115)
作者单位E-mail
梁辉 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100048  
赵文光 中国电建集团 成都勘设计研究院有限公司, 四川 成都 610072  
郭胜山 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100048 305265331@qq.com 
涂劲 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100048  
李德玉 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100048  
廖建新 中国三峡建设管理有限公司, 北京 100038  
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中文摘要:
      为了进行高拱坝的地震风险分析,引入幂指数函数的形式来描述地震危险性曲线,结合概率地震需求模型和地震易损性曲线函数,推求了概率地震风险分析解析函数。基于此,以实际工程为例,开展了高拱坝-地基体系整体稳定概率地震风险分析。在概率统计框架下,以高拱坝-地基系统整体抗震稳定安全评价为研究目标,在考虑坝基岩体内控制性滑动块体滑裂面力学参数不确定性基础上,构建了概率地震风险分析模型,得到了基于残余滑动位移的高拱坝-地基体系年超越概率曲线。从而给出了设计基准期限内,高拱坝-地基体系整体地震稳定达到不同性能水平的概率,为其在极限地震下的抗震安全评价提供依据,同时为现有基于准则的混凝土坝抗震安全决策转向基于风险概率的安全决策提供科学依据。
英文摘要:
      In order to analyze the seismic risk of high arch dam, the power exponential function is used to describe the seismic hazard curve, and the analytical function of the probabilistic seismic risk analysis is derived by combining the probabilistic seismic demand model and the seismic vulnerability function. Based on this, the probabilistic seismic risk analysis of the overall stability of a high arch dam foundation system is carried out by taking a practical project as an example. In the probabilistic and statistical framework,the probabilistic seismic risk analysis model is constructed for the purpose of the overall seismic stability safety assessment of high arch dam-foundation systems, considering the uncertainty of mechanical parameters of the sliding surface of the control sliding block in the dam abutment, thus, the residual slippage-based annual exceeding probability curves of the high arch dam-foundation system are obtained. Moreover,the probability of the arch dam-foundation system reaching different performance levels during the design reference period is given,which provides the basis for the seismic safety evaluation under the extreme earthquake,and provides the scientific basis for the seismic safety decision-making of concrete dams based on the existing criteria changing to the safety decision-making based on the risk probability.
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