| 金菊良,沈时兴,崔毅,张修宇,何飘,宁少尉.半偏减法集对势在引黄灌区水资源承载力动态评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2021,52(5):507-520 |
| 半偏减法集对势在引黄灌区水资源承载力动态评价中的应用 |
| Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River diversion irrigation district based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential |
| 投稿时间：2020-07-23 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20200561 |
| 中文关键词: 水资源承载力评价 引黄灌区 脆弱性诊断 集对分析 半偏减法集对势 联系数 |
| 英文关键词: evaluation of water resources carrying capacity Yellow River diversion irrigation district vulnerability diagnosis set pair analysis semipartial subtraction set pair potential connection number |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0407206）；国家自然科学基金项目（51779067，51709071）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（JZ2020HGQA0202） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 金菊良 | 合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009
合肥工业大学 水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽 合肥 230009 | | | 沈时兴 | 合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009
合肥工业大学 水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽 合肥 230009 | | | 崔毅 | 合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009
合肥工业大学 水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽 合肥 230009 | cuiyi9007@163.com | | 张修宇 | 华北水利水电大学 水资源学院, 河南 郑州 450046 | | | 何飘 | 合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009 | | | 宁少尉 | 合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009
合肥工业大学 水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽 合肥 230009 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为有效处理、充分挖掘水资源承载力动态评价中评价样本与评价标准之间的不确定性，分析识别区域水资源承载状态及其变化的物理机制，构建了引黄灌区水资源承载力动态评价的半偏减法集对势方法（SSSPP）。SSSPP在河南省大功灌区的应用结果表明：从承载力系统角度看，灌区总体承载状态得到改善，且从2013年起更为明显，2017年灌区5县均为水资源临界超载，其中距离黄河干流越远的县承载状态越差；从承载力子系统角度看，各县的承载支撑力均呈小幅恶化态势，这是限制灌区承载力提升的主要原因，承载压力在波动中减小、承载调控力显著增强；从承载力评价指标角度看，各县的支撑力指标人均水资源可利用量、水资源开发利用率长期处于反势，压力指标人均GDP、缺水率长期处于反势或偏反势，这些均是灌区承载力调控的重点对象，而部分县调控力指标灌溉水有效利用系数、生态环境用水率由反势逐步发展为偏同势或同势，这是承载力提升的重要原因，反映其对农业和生态用水的管控。可见，SSSPP可分别从承载力系统、子系统和评价指标三个层次定量解析引黄灌区水资源承载状态及其演变特点，既可测度灌区承载力的强弱，又可诊断影响承载力的重要子系统和关键指标。半偏减法集对势的内涵更具解释性、方法直观、计算简便，是减法集对势与一阶效应全偏联系数相结合的一种改进减法集对势，为准确判别资源、环境、生态承载力动态评价等集对系统所处状态及其发展趋势提供了新的有效途径。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to deal with the uncertainty between evaluation sample and evaluation criterion in the dynamic assessment of water resources carrying capacity， and to analyze and identify the physical mechanism of regional water resources carrying state and its change， a semipartial subtraction set pair potential method for dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River diversion irrigation district （SSSPP） was established. The results of SSSPP applied to Dagong irrigation district in Henan Province showed that as follows：（1） From the perspective of carrying capacity system，the overall carrying status in the irrigation district was improved， and the trend was more obvious since 2013. In 2017， all the five counties of the irrigation district were in the water resources critical overload status. Furthermore， the farther away from the main stream of the Yellow River，the worse the carrying states of the counties. （2） From the perspective of carrying capacity subsystem，the carrying support force of each county was slightly deteriorated， which was the primary reason to limit the improvement of carrying capacity in the irrigation district. In addition， the carrying pressure force decreased in fluctuation， and the carrying regulation force was significantly enhanced. （3） From the perspective of carrying capacity evaluation index， the support force indexes， available amount of water resources per capita and the utilization rate of water resources of each county were always in inverse potential. The pressure force indexes，GDP per capita and water shortage rate were in inverse potential or partial inverse potential for a long time. These four indexes were the key objects of water resources carrying capacity regulation and control for the irrigation district. Moreover， the regulation force indexes，the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water and the rate of ecological and environment water utilization developed from inverse potential to partial identical potential or identical potential in some counties. These were the main reasons for the increase of their carrying capacity and reflected the management and control of agricultural and ecological water use. It can be seen that SSSPP can quantitatively analyze the water resources carrying status and its evolution characteristics in the Yellow River diversion irrigation district from three levels of carrying capacity system， subsystem and evaluation index，respectively. It not only can measure the carrying capacity in the irrigation district，but also can diagnose the crucial subsystems and indexes that affect the carrying capacity. The connotation of semipartial subtraction set pair potential is more explanatory， the method is more intuitive and the calculation is easier， it is an improved subtraction set pair potential under the comprehensive theories of subtraction set pair potential and first-order effect total partial connection number， which provides a new effective way for accurately identifying the state and development trend of set system， such as dynamic evaluation of resources， environment and ecology carrying capacity. |
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