文章摘要
杨亚锋,王红瑞,巩书鑫,邓彩云.可变勾股模糊VIKOR水资源系统韧性评价调控模型及应用[J].水利学报,2021,52(6):633-646
可变勾股模糊VIKOR水资源系统韧性评价调控模型及应用
Variable Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR evaluation regulation model of water resources system resilience and its application
投稿时间:2020-06-22  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20200455
中文关键词: 水资源系统  韧性评价  勾股模糊集  VIKOR  可变集  长江经济带
英文关键词: water resources system  resilient evaluation  Pythagorean fuzzy set  VIKOR  variable set  Yangtze River Economic Belt
基金项目:国家重点研究计划项目(2019YFC0408902,2018YFC0407900);国家自然科学基金项目(51879010)
作者单位E-mail
杨亚锋 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 100875
华北理工大学 理学院, 河北 唐山 063000 
 
王红瑞 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 100875 henrywang@bnu.edu.cn 
巩书鑫 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 100875  
邓彩云 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 100875  
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中文摘要:
      水资源系统韧性的评价与调控是缓解水资源危机,规避水资源风险的重要途径之一。结合水资源系统韧性的内涵,分析水资源系统面临压力的多元性、复合性与吸收扰动的能力,从抵抗性、恢复性和适应性三个方面构建了韧性评价指标体系;针对勾股模糊VIKOR方法中决策者在相邻模糊语言变量之间的主观犹豫性,从韧性评价指标的客观数据出发,利用可变集相对隶属度的方法改进勾股模糊数的获取途径,构建了一种可变勾股模糊VIKOR多准则决策模型。该模型借助利益比率刻画韧性水平与时空演化特征,通过折衷排序值的异常检测,挖掘主要调控方向及相应指标,进而实现水资源系统的韧性评价与调控分析。将该模型应用于长江经济带11个省级行政区2008—2017年水资源系统韧性评价与调控分析的研究结果表明:长江经济带2008—2017年水资源系统韧性总体上呈现上升趋势,但2015年以后出现一定程度的下滑;各省韧性水平存在较大差异,呈现东段弱、西段和中段强的地域分布;水资源系统韧性在适应性方向的调控是应关注的重点。
英文摘要:
      Evaluation and regulation of water resources system resilience is one of the important ways to alleviate water resources crisis and avoid water resources risk. Combined with the connotation of resilience, this paper analyzes the diversity and complexity of the pressure on water resources system, and the ability of absorbing disturbance, and constructs the resilience evaluation index system from three aspects of resistance, resilience and adaptability. Aiming at the subjective hesitation of decision makers between adjacent fuzzy linguistic variables in the Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR method, a variable Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR multi criteria decision-making model is constructed based on the objective data of resilience evaluation index and the relative membership method of variable set. This model describes the characteristics of resilience level and spatiotemporal evolution with the help of benefit ratio. Through anomaly detection of compromise ranking value, the main regulation direction and corresponding indicators are mined, and then the resilience evaluation and regulation analysis of water resources system are realized. Finally,the model was applied to the evaluation and regulation analysis of water resources system resilience of 11 provincial administrative regions in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2008 to 2017. The results show that from 2008 to 2017, the resilience of water resources system in the Yangtze River economic belt is on the rise, but it has declined to a certain extent since 2015; there are great differences in the resilience levels of each province,showing the regional distribution of weak in the east section,strong in the West section and middle section; at present, the main regulation direction of the resilience of water resources system is the adaptability subsystem.
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