| 张璇,许杨,郝芳华,郝增超.滦河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播特征及风险分析[J].水利学报,2022,53(2):165-175 |
| 滦河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播特征及风险分析 |
| Characteristics and risk analysis of drought propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in Luanhe River Basin |
| 投稿时间：2021-05-28 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20210477 |
| 中文关键词: 气象干旱 水文干旱 干旱传播 Copula 函数 临界条件 |
| 英文关键词: meteorological drought hydrological drought drought propagation Copula function critical condition |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC1508901）；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（41907157） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1906 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 干旱是一种复杂的自然灾害，气象干旱可能导致水文干旱等灾害，严重影响社会经济发展。探明气象干旱向水文干旱传播的特征及规律，可为减小干旱损失、保障流域供水用水安全提供技术支持。本文基于滦河山区1960—2017年的气象水文数据，应用游程原理识别气象水文干旱事件，甄别二者间的传播特征，并借助Copula模型评估气象干旱向水文干旱的风险和干旱传播的临界关系。结果表明：（1）在1960—2017年期间，与气象干旱事件相比，水文干旱事件具有频率低、历时长、峰值低的特点；（2）滦河地区气象干旱和水文干旱传播关系以单场气象干旱向单场水文干旱传播为主；（3）气象干旱向水文干旱的传播存在明显的滞后效应，从上游至下游地区干旱滞后时间依次增长；（4）Gumbel Copula函数能够更准确地评估该流域干旱传播风险，结果显示上游地区发生干旱传播的风险低于下游地区，上、下游地区气象干旱发展成水文干旱的临界历时分别为0.93个月和1.26个月，临界峰值强度分别为0.66和0.44。本研究可为评价不同干旱事件间的传播与演变关系，构建流域干旱风险评价模型提供新思路。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The meteorological drought will lead to the shortage of water resources in the hydrological cycle system. Exploring the drought propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought will provide technical support for reducing drought losses and ensuring the water supply safety of river basin. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1960 to 2017 in the mountain of Luanhe River Basin (LRB), the propagation relation between the meteorological and hydrological drought events was analyzed. The Copula model was used to assess the risk of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The results show that:(1) Compared with meteorological drought, hydrological drought has a lower frequency, longer duration, and lower peak value;(2) The propagation relation between meteorological drought and hydrological drought were closest related at the LRB;(3) There was a significant lag in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought;(4) The results of copula model showed that the propagation risk of drought duration in the downstream region was higher than that in the downstream of LRB. This study provides useful insights for evaluating the propagation and evolution of different types of drought events and constructing drought risk assessment models. |
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