| 尚文绣,尚弈,严登明,吴天志,彭少明,周翔南.基于模糊逻辑的黄河流域水安全综合评价方法研究[J].水利学报,2022,53(3):369-378 |
| 基于模糊逻辑的黄河流域水安全综合评价方法研究 |
| Comprehensive assessment method of water security in Yellow River Basin based on fuzzy logic |
| 投稿时间：2021-08-29 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20210791 |
| 中文关键词: 模糊逻辑 水安全 指标影响关系 敏感性 提升方向诊断 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词: fuzzy logic water security influence relationship of indicators sensitivity promotion direction diagnosis Yellow River Basin |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200203);河南省重大科技专项(201300311400);国家自然科学基金项目(51879240) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了对黄河流域及流域内省（区）水安全进行评价与诊断，从资源、经济、生态、环境和防灾五个方面构建了黄河流域水安全评价指标体系，建立考虑评价指标间影响关系的模糊逻辑评价模型，并提出了评价方法敏感性分析与水安全提升方向诊断方法。结果表明：模糊逻辑可通过指标间的影响关系增大单指标对评价结果的作用，所建立的模糊逻辑评价模型对单指标变化的敏感性是加权求和法的1.69倍；黄河流域水安全处于基本安全状态，流域内青海、甘肃、陕西和河南水安全处于基本安全状态，宁夏、内蒙古、山西和山东水安全处于临界状态；水生态安全是黄河流域水安全的主要制约因素，增加水生态安全是提升黄河流域及青海、甘肃、陕西和河南4省水安全的最优方向。研究成果揭示了模糊逻辑在处理多指标、非线性、复杂性问题上的优越性，可为水安全提升方向诊断提供新的思路。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Water security assessment is important to understand and promote basin water security scientifically. This paper developed a Yellow River Basin water security assessment index system with consideration of water supply，economy，ecology，environment and disaster control，This paper built a fuzzy logic assessment model incorporating influence relationship among indicators，and developed sensitivity analysis method and water security promotion direction diagnosis method. The results show that the influence relationship among indicators can increase the impact of single indicator on assessment result，therefore，the sensitivity of the fuzzy logic assessment model to single indicator alteration is 1.69 times of the sensitivity of the weighted summation method in this paper. Yellow River Basin water security was basically safe. For provinces in the Yellow River Basin， the water security was basically safe in Qinghai， Gansu， Shannxi and Henan，whereas the water security was in critical state in Ningxia，Inner Mongolia，Shanxi and Shandong. The water ecological security is the main constraint of the Yellow River Basin water security. Increasing water ecological security is the best water security promotion direction for the Yellow River Basin，Qinghai， Gansu，Shannxi and Henan. The results reveal that fuzzy logic has advantages in dealing with multiple indicators，non-liner and complex problems，and provides a new way to diagnose water security promotion direction. |
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