| 田福昌,苑希民,何立新,王秀杰,王丽娜,郭立兵.寒区河道-堤防-泛区凌汛灾害风险评估防控研究进展[J].水利学报,2022,53(5):549-559,573 |
| 寒区河道-堤防-泛区凌汛灾害风险评估防控研究进展 |
| Research progress on ice flood disasters risk assessment and prevention and control of the river channel-dike-flood plain in cold region |
| 投稿时间：2021-09-19 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20210862 |
| 中文关键词: 河道-堤防-泛区系统 凌汛灾害 风险评估 风险防控 链条效应 |
| 英文关键词: river channel-dike-flood plain system ice flood disaster risk assessment risk prevention and control chain effect |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508403)；高等学校学科创新引智计划(B14012)；科技部重点领域创新团队(2014RA4031)；国家自然基金委创新团队(51621092) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 寒区凌汛灾害的孕育、发生及演变与河道-堤防-泛区关联密切,凌汛灾害风险的科学评估与防控至关重要。以凌汛灾害风险"识别-计算-评估-防控"为主线思路,从凌汛成因与凌汛灾害特征、河冰及凌汛洪水数值模型、河道凌汛灾害风险评估、凌汛期堤防险情与溃堤淹没风险评估、凌汛灾害风险防控措施等五个方面,综述寒区河道-堤防-泛区凌汛灾害风险评估防控研究进展,并提出河道-堤防-泛区凌汛灾害链条效应及其驱动机制、河冰演变-凌汛壅水-堤防险情-泛区淹没风险链模型、河道凌汛壅水-堤防溃决-泛区淹没风险定量评估、堤防冻融险情演化动力机制及智能预测、凌汛灾害监测-预警-评估-防控应急决策支持系统、凌汛灾害"四预"数字孪生平台等方面是凌汛灾害风险评估与防控亟需解决的关键科学问题或未来主要的研究方向,可为寒区凌汛灾害风险的深入探究与科学管理提供重要思路。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The gestation,occurrence and evolution of ice flood disasters in cold regions are closely related to the river channel-dike-flood plain system (RDFS),and the scientific assessment and prevention and control of ice flood disasters risk are of great importance. The "identification-calculation-assessment-prevention and control" of ice flood disasters risk was taken as the main line of thinking in this paper. The research progress from the following five aspects:causes and characteristics of ice flood disasters,numerical models of river ice and ice flood,river ice flood disasters risk assessment,risk assessment of dyke failure and inundation during ice flood,and risk prevention and control measures of ice flood disasters were reviewed. The driving mechanism and chain effect of ice flood disasters in RDFS,disaster model of river ice evolution-ice flood backwater-dyke danger-ice flood inundation,risk quantitative assessment of ice backwater-dike burst-ice flood inundation,dyke freezing and thawing danger evolution mechanism and intelligent prediction,support system of ice flood disasters including monitoring-early warning-assessment-risk prevention and control,the digital twin platform for "four presets" of ice flood disasters,were key directions,which can provide important ideas for in-depth exploration and scientific management of the ice flood disasters risk in cold regions. |
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