| 程雄,林小滨,钟浩,刘冀,牛文静,陈述.基于复杂度理论的水电站群标准化指标评价方法[J].水利学报,2022,53(6):697-711 |
| 基于复杂度理论的水电站群标准化指标评价方法 |
| Standardization index evaluation method based on the complexity theory of hydropower station group |
| 投稿时间：2022-02-12 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20220212 |
| 中文关键词: 复杂度理论 对标评价 多元线性回归法 四分位数 水电站群 |
| 英文关键词: complex theory benchmarking evaluation multiple linear regression method quartile ranking cascade hydropower stations |
| 基金项目:湖北省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(D20211205);国家自然科学基金项目(51609124,52009012) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 当前我国水电企业发展重心从争取新项目逐渐转向存量资产精细化管理的关键阶段，为促进各水电企业开展同业对标，改进和提高企业经营水平，亟需建立一套能够适应不同特征水电站的对标评价方法，为此，本文提出基于复杂度理论的水电站群标准化指标评价方法。该方法基本原理是首先根据水电站收益成本动因初选与水电站相关的基础、收益、成本指标，对指标进行无量纲化处理，采用多元线性回归法筛选自变量指标，然后对筛选后的自变量指标进行数次线性回归分析，直至因变量指标和自变量指标处在一条直线来确定各指标的权重；然后使用复杂强度值公式计算各水电站综合多指标复杂强度值，从单站收益水平、单站支出水平、收益效率、运维效率和综合盈利能力五类综合维度进行评价；最后利用四分位数法对水电站进行多角度分析，实现水电站收支水平、管理效率和综合盈利能力的对标评价。以澜沧江、大渡河、雅砻江以及金沙江等流域共计69座水电站为研究对象，结果表明提出的评价模型能够将不同水电站置于同一层面对标评价，对查找水电企业运行和管理差距、提高水电企业经营业绩等方面具有重要的指导意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| At present,the development focus of hydropower enterprises in China has gradually shifted from striving for new projects to the key stage of fine management of stock assets.In order to promote hydropower enterprises to carry out peer benchmarking and improve the management level of enterprises,it is urgent to establish a set of benchmarking evaluation method that can adapt to different characteristics of hydropower stations.Therefore,this paper proposes a standardized index evaluation method based on the complexity theory of hydropower stations.The basic principle of this method is to select the income and cost indicators related to hydropower stations according to the income and cost drivers of hydropower stations,conduct dimensionless treatment of the indicators.The multiple linear regression method is used to select indexes,and then the selected indexes are analyzed by multiple linear regression until the dependent variable and independent variable are in a straight line to determine the weight of each index.Then the complex strength value formula is used to calculate the comprehensive multi-index complex strength value of each hydropower station,and the evaluation is carried out from five comprehensive dimensions:single station income level,single station expenditure level,income efficiency,operation and maintenance efficiency and comprehensive profitability.Finally,the quartile method is used for multi-angle analysis of hydropower stations to achieve benchmarking evaluation of the income and expenditure level,management efficiency and comprehensive profitability of hydropower stations.A total of 69 hydropower stations in Lancang River,Dadu River,Yalong River and Jinsha River Basin are selected as the research objects.The results show that the proposed evaluation model can evaluate different hydropower stations at the same level,which has important guiding significance for finding the operation and management gap of hydropower enterprises and improving the operation performance of hydropower enterprises. |
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