张玮,刘攀,刘志武,刘瑞阔,明波.变化环境下水库适应性调度研究进展与展望[J].水利学报,2022,53(9):1017-1027,1038 |
变化环境下水库适应性调度研究进展与展望 |
State-of-the-art review of reservoir adaptation operation in changing environment |
投稿时间:2021-11-19 |
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20211024 |
中文关键词: 水库适应性调度 变化环境 调度规则 入库径流预测 静态衔接 动态调整 |
英文关键词: reservoir adaptation operation changing environment operating rules reservoir inflow projection static connection dynamic adjustment |
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52109011);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202103511) |
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中文摘要: |
在气候变化与人类活动共同驱动的变化环境下,依赖于一致性水文条件所设计的传统水库调度运行策略,将难以满足决策者的需求。为了保障水资源安全与高效利用,水库管理者需对传统水库调度运行策略进行适应性调整。因此,变化环境下水库适应性调度作为当前水库调度领域的一项前沿课题,国内外专家学者已经开展了大量卓越的工作。本文旨在于总结近年来的水库适应性调度研究进展,包括变化环境下水库入库径流预测、水库调度规则编制以及耦合变化环境-入库径流-调度规则的框架等方面,并归纳当前相关研究中存在的问题及不足。进而,未来水库适应性调度研究发展方向,建议更多关注考虑自然-人工互馈影响的入库径流预测、水库调度运行策略的静态衔接与动态调整。 |
英文摘要: |
In the changing environment driven by climate change and human activities, traditional reservoir operating rules, designed based on stationary hydrological condition, cannot perform well as reservoir managers requested. This forces reservoir managers to make adaptive adjustments to ensure safety and efficient utilization of water resources. Therefore, reservoir adaptation operation in changing environment is a frontier and hot topic in the field of reservoir operation at home and abroad. Many international experts and scholars have carried out plenty of excellent works. This study is aimed to provide the state-of-the-art review of reservoir adaptation operation in recent decades. It includes three crucial parts:(1) reservoir inflow projection method in changing environment, (2) derivation method of reservoir operating rules, and (3) the methodological framework incorporating changing environment-reservoir inflow-reservoir operating rules. The main research problems are also summarized in this paper. Furthermore, future potential directions of reservoir adaptation operation are discussed, such as how to project reservoir inflow considering natural and artificial dual effects, and how to achieve static connection and dynamic adjustment of reservoir operation strategies. |
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