| 赵勇,常奂宇,桑学锋,何国华,王庆明,姜珊.京津冀水资源-粮食-能源-生态协同调控研究Ⅱ：应用[J].水利学报,2022,53(10):1251-1261 |
| 京津冀水资源-粮食-能源-生态协同调控研究Ⅱ：应用 |
| Research on the coordinated regulation of water resources-food-energy-ecology in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region Ⅱ: Application |
| 投稿时间：2022-01-26 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20220066 |
| 中文关键词: 京津冀 水-粮-能-生 推演式情景设置 协同调控 中东线后续规模 |
| 英文关键词: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei water-food-energy-ecology deductive scenario setting coordinated regulation SNWDP follow-up scale |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC3200204）；国家杰出青年科学基金项目（52025093） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 京津冀是我国水资源-粮食-能源-生态（以下简写为水-粮-能-生）关系表现最显著、联合风险最突出的地区之一。针对该地区特点以及水资源管理实践需求，构建了京津冀水-粮-能-生协同调控模型，识别了耦合系统现状状态，开展未来多情景推演式模拟调控，提出基于水-粮-能-生关联视角下京津冀协同调控方案。结果表明，京津冀现状水资源供需平衡是以地下水超采、河湖生态用水被挤占来维持的，在保障水-粮-能-生耦合系统平衡下，即使南水北调中线一期工程达效运行，仍存在30.9亿m3的破坏性缺水；通过需求变化、生态保障和供给能力3个方面进行未来情景推演式模拟调控，提出了保障2035水平年京津冀水-粮-能-生耦合系统协同发展情景，从水资源衰减和受水区需求角度出发，建议京津冀地区南水北调中东线后续年调水工程规模为46.2亿～60亿m3。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the regions with the most prominent joint risk and the most significant relationship between water-food-energy-ecology in China.According to the characteristics of the system and the practical needs of water resources management in the region,the coordinated regulation model of water-food-energy-ecology coupling system was constructed,the status of the system was identified,the future was simulated by multi-scenario regulation,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated regulation scheme was proposed based on the perspective of water-food-energy-ecology coupling system.The results show that the balance of water supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is maintained by the overexploitation of groundwater and the overuse of ecological water in rivers and lakes.Under the guarantee of the balance of water-food-energy-ecology coupling system,even if the phase Ⅰ project of the Middle Line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project reaches effective operation,there is still a destructive water shortage of 3.09 billion m3.Through the deductive regulation of future scenarios from three aspects of demand change,ecological security and supply capacity,this paper gives the scenario to ensure the coordinated development of water-food-energy-ecology coupling system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2035.From the perspective of future water resources attenuation and water receiving area demand,the proposed annual water transfer scale of the follow-up project of the Middle and East Line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is 4.62 billion m3~6 billion m3. |
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