| 魏博文,张升,袁冬阳,徐富刚.基于概率-模糊-区间混合模型和改进分枝限界法的重力坝可靠性分析方法[J].水利学报,2022,53(12):1476-1489 |
| 基于概率-模糊-区间混合模型和改进分枝限界法的重力坝可靠性分析方法 |
| Reliability analysis method of gravity dam based on probability-fuzzy-interval hybrid model and improved branch and bound method |
| 投稿时间：2022-01-21 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20220047 |
| 中文关键词: 重力坝 混合模型 失效模式 分枝限界法 系统可靠度 |
| 英文关键词: gravity dam hybrid model failure mode branch and bound method system reliability |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51869011,52169025);江西省杰出青年自然科学基金项目(20192ACB21022);中国博士后基金项目(2019M652281);江西省自然科学基金项目(20192BAB216040);江西省水利厅重大科技项目(202224ZDKT21) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 借助传统概率模型评估重力坝服役安全需明确参数的概率分布,而非概率区间模型所得结论难以准确度量重力坝服役可靠程度,因此,本文提出了基于概率-模糊-区间混合模型和改进分枝限界法的重力坝可靠性分析方法。基于原型、室内试验成果与安全监测资料,结合参数时变模型和区间反演分析方法,建立综合考虑随机变量、模糊变量和区间变量的重力坝可靠性分析混合模型;利用信息熵法和Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)最优化条件解耦混合模型,通过基于当量正态化法的验算点法(JC法)计算可靠指标;对传统分枝限界法加以改进搜索主要失效模式,采用Ditlevsen窄界限法计算体系可靠度,综合评估重力坝整体服役安全。工程实例分析表明,本文方法可求解多种不确定因素共存的重力坝可靠性分析问题,适用范围较广;计算结果仍为概率可靠指标,表明在符合重力坝运行规律的前提下所选定坝段存在滑动失稳的可能性,与大坝的实际服役情况相吻合。此外,建立的可靠性分析混合模型,经一定的改进和拓展后,亦可用于其他结构工程的可靠性分析。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using the traditional probability model to evaluate the service safety of gravity dam needs to clarify the probability distribution of parameters,and it is difficult to accurately measure the service reliability of gravity dams based on the conclusions of non-probability interval model.Therefore,a reliability analysis method of gravity dam based on probability fuzzy-interval-hybrid model and improved branch and bound method is proposed.Based on the prototype,laboratory test results and safety monitoring data,combined with the parameter time-varying model and interval inversion analysis method,a hybrid model for reliability analysis of gravity dam is established,which comprehensively considers random variables,fuzzy variables and interval variables.Using the information entropy method and Karush Kuhn Tucker (KKT) optimization condition decoupling the hybrid model,the reliability index is calculated by the checking point method based on equivalent normalization method (JC method for short).The traditional branch and bound method is improved to search the main failure modes,and the Ditlevsen narrow bound method is used to calculate the system reliability,so as to comprehensively evaluate the overall service safety of the gravity dam.Examples shows that the method can solve the reliability analysis of gravity dams with many uncertain factors,and has a wide range of application.The calculation result is still a probability reliability index.On the premise of conforming to the operation law of the gravity dam,it shows that the selected dam section has the possibility of sliding instability,which is consistent with the actual service situation of the dam.In addition,the hybrid model can be used for the reliability analysis of other structural projects after some improvement and expansion. |
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