| 陈祥鼎,刘攀,吴迪,马黎,龚兰强,黄康迪.水风光互补系统装机容量配置解析优化及敏感性分析[J].水利学报,2023,54(8):978-986 |
| 水风光互补系统装机容量配置解析优化及敏感性分析 |
| Analytical optimization and sensitivity analysis of installed capacity configuration of hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary systems |
| 投稿时间：2022-12-01 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20220976 |
| 中文关键词: 水风光多能互补 解析优化 最优装机函数 经济技术参数 敏感性分析 |
| 英文关键词: hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary analytical optimization optimal installed capacity function economic technical parameter sensitivity analysis |
| 基金项目:国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52225901);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202804);中国华能集团有限公司科技项目(HNKJ22-H108) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水风光装机容量优化配置对于提高能源利用效率具有重要意义，但传统的以系统净效益最大为目标的数值模拟方法难以刻画明晰互补系统净效益、装机容量、电价、成本等经济技术参数之间的定量关系。为此，本文提出装机容量配置的解析优化方法。首先构建风光弃电率函数，以精准模拟长时段风光弃电量;然后基于成本-效益模型解析最优装机函数，并采用数值模拟方法检验;最后，对最优装机函数泰勒展开，以评估容量配置中最优装机和互补系统净效益对各经济技术参数的敏感性。以雅砻江流域二滩水风光互补工程为实例，研究结果表明：提出的解析优化方法经检验可精确配置装机容量;最优装机和净效益最敏感的参数均为上网电价，最不敏感参数均为运行维护成本，系统净效益对上网电价敏感性为运行维护成本的4.44倍。研究可为流域水风光互补电站规划设计提供技术支持。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The optimal allocation of installed hydro-wind-photovoltaic capacity is important for improving energy use efficiency.However，it is difficult to portray the quantitative relationship between the net benefits of complementary systems，installed capacity and economic technical parameters such as electricity price and costs by the traditional numerical simulation method that aims at maximizing the net system benefits.To this end，this paper proposes an analytical optimization method for the installed capacity configuration.First，construct the wind-photovoltaic curtailment rate function to accurately simulate long-term wind and PV curtailed power，then the optimal installed capacity function is analyzed based on the cost-benefit model and tested by numerical simulation method，finally，Taylor expansion of the optimal installed capacity function is performed to assess the sensitivity of the optimal installed capacity and the net benefit of the complementary system to each economic technical parameter in the capacity configuration.Taking the Yalong River Basin Ertan hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary project as an example，the results show that the proposed analytical optimization method has been tested to accurately configure the installed capacity，the most sensitive parameter of the optimal installed capacity and the net benefit is the feed-in tariff and the least sensitive parameter is the operation and maintenance cost，and the sensitivity of the feed-in tariff to the net benefit is 4.44 times of the operation and maintenance cost.The study can provide technical support for the planning and designing of watershed hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary power plants. |
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