| 王孟浩,江善虎,任立良,杨肖丽,方秀琴,严登华.基于时变参数和阈值的非平稳水文干旱评估方法构建[J].水利学报,2023,54(12):1507-1518 |
| 基于时变参数和阈值的非平稳水文干旱评估方法构建 |
| Construction of non-stationary hydrological drought assessment methods based on time-varying parameters and thresholds |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-15 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230283 |
| 中文关键词: 变化环境 水文干旱 时变标准化径流指数 时变阈值法 渭河流域 |
| 英文关键词: changing environment hydrological drought time-varying standardized streamflow index time-varying threshold level method Weihe River basin |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203，51979069);中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(IWHR-SKL-KF202312) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 变化环境下，气候变化和人类活动的双重影响导致径流过程出现非平稳特征，需构建非平稳水文干旱评估方法。选取渭河流域为研究区，基于平稳性、突变性和趋势性分析方法，分析径流过程非平稳特征;分别采用基于位置、尺度和形状参数的广义可加模型和完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解法，构建考虑径流过程非平稳变化的时变参数标准化径流指数和时变阈值法，开展非平稳水文干旱事件评估;结合标准化降水指数和历史记载干旱事件验证两种非平稳干旱评估方法的合理性。结果表明：渭河流域年径流序列突变点出现在1990年前后，且径流序列在突变点后(1991—2020年)呈显著(α < 0.05)上升趋势;不同设计方案间的对比结果表明，时变参数标准化径流指数和时变阈值法具备更强的稳健性，可合理刻画出径流过程的旱涝动态变化;构建的两类非平稳评估方法与标准化降水指数及历史记载干旱事件表征的旱涝过程有较高的一致性，更适应于变化环境下的水文干旱评估。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In a changing environment, the joint impacts of climate change and human activities lead to non-stationary characteristics of streamflow processes, which urgently require the development of non-stationary hydrological drought assessment methods.The Weihe River basin in China was selected as the study area, and the non-stationary characteristics of its streamflow processes were analyzed based on the stationarity test, change-point test, and trend analysis methods.The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape(GAMLSS)model and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN)method were used to construct the time-varying Standardized Streamflow Index(SSIvar)and the time-varying Threshold Level series(TLvar)considering the non-stationary characteristics of the streamflow to carry out the non-stationary hydrological drought assessment.Then, standardized precipitation index(SPI)and historical records of drought events were selected to validate the rationality of the two proposed non-stationary assessment methods.The results showed that the time of the change point for the annual streamflow series in the Weihe River basin was concentrated around the year 1990.The streamflow series had a significant(α<0.05)upward trend during the period after the change point(from 1991 to 2020).Comparison results between different design schemes showed that the SSIvar and TLvar were more robust than the traditional standardized streamflow index or threshold level methods, and can reasonably capture the drought and flood dynamics of the streamflow process.The validation results showed that drought and flood processes characterized by the proposed two non-stationary assessment methods were in high agreement with those characterized by the SPI series and historical records of drought events, revealing that these two non-stationary methods are more suitable for the non-stationary hydrological drought assessment in a changing environment. |
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