| 游进军,贾玲,王彦兵,杨朝晖,汪林,薛志春.协调公平与效率的“四水四定”研究Ⅱ：应用[J].水利学报,2024,55(3):266-277,287 |
| 协调公平与效率的“四水四定”研究Ⅱ：应用 |
| Study on “water dominates development” based on equity and efficiency Ⅱ：application |
| 投稿时间：2023-07-17 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230433 |
| 中文关键词: 四水四定 多目标协调优化 刚性需求 水资源配置 区域均衡 |
| 英文关键词: water dominates development multi-objective optimization demand of rigidity water allocation regional balance |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52079143，52209042)；国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFF1304202，2018YFC0407705)；中国工程院院地合作重大项目(2022NXZD1) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 宁夏干旱缺水且发展不均衡，以水定需是必然选择。本文针对宁夏水资源条件和经济社会特征，构建协调公平与效率的“四水四定”优化模型，开展全区“四水四定”方案分析。模型以用水总量红线指标为水资源刚性约束，根据区域发展战略确定刚性保障需求，通过水与“四定”协调关系分析得出经济社会发展和用水效率可行变化范围。以2019年为现状、2025年为目标年，采用模型协调优化得出“四定”规模控制目标，以及分行业和区县的用水总量控制指标。结果表明，在全区73.27亿m3用水总量和41.5亿m3耗水约束下，满足全面小康的“四定”规模为750万人、5481亿元GDP、84.7万hm2灌溉面积和791 km2建成区面积。通过对比分析方案的公平性和效率提升状况，揭示了不同行业、区域的水量流转方向，表明约束设置对结果有显著影响，可为区域经济社会发展和水资源管控决策提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Drought and water shortage are the basic water conditions in Ningxia，and water-based development is the only way for Ningxia’s high-quality development.Aiming at the water resources conditions and socio-economic characteristics of Ningxia，the objective function and classification constraints are established according to the requirements of “water dominates development” multi-objective optimization model.The feasible range of development space and water use efficiency is obtained by analyzing the coordination relationship between water and “human，industry，land，and urban”，or “Four Determinations”.The rigid guarantee demand is defined based on the development strategy.Following the principle of “ensuring rigid demand，efficiency driving and regional balance”，the analysis of the “water dominates development” scheme in the whole region is carried out based on county-level units，and the scale control objectives and water allocation scheme of “Four Determinations” are obtained.The results show that under the constraints of total water use of 7.327 billion m3 and water consumption of 4.15 billion m3 in the whole region，the “Four Determinations” scale that meets the overall well-off level is 7.5 million people，548.1 billion yuan GDP，0.847 million hm2 irrigation area and 791 km2 built-up area.The comprehensive evaluation shows that the “water dominates development” scheme meets the requirements of high quality，and has higher regional balance and water fairness than the current situation.The relationship between objectives of efficiency and equity is analyzed based on scenarios with different preferences，and the results show the significant impacts of settings of objectives and restraints，hence the comprehensive evaluation of the scenarios is necessary.By comparing the current situation with the objectives of the “water dominates development” plan，the control countermeasures to guide the layout of regional economic and social development are proposed，which could be referential for relevant decision-making. |
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