| 熊斌,卓云强,许崇育,熊立华,陈泽强,田逸飞.1956—2022年鄱阳湖枯水情势演变及驱动机制分析[J].水利学报,2024,55(3):313-324 |
| 1956—2022年鄱阳湖枯水情势演变及驱动机制分析 |
| Analysis on the evolution and driving mechanism of low flow regime from 1956 to 2022 in Poyang Lake，China |
| 投稿时间：2023-06-05 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230329 |
| 中文关键词: 鄱阳湖 枯水 干旱 三峡水库 贡献分析 |
| 英文关键词: Poyang Lake low flow drought Three Gorges Reservoir contribution analysis |
| 基金项目:江西省自然科学基金项目(20212BAB214066)；国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心开放基金项目(2021KFJJ02) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 鄱阳湖枯水情势变化将极大影响区域水资源、水环境和水生态安全状态。复杂条件下鄱阳湖水文极端事件成因分析与灾害预警是当前亟待突破的难点。本文基于湖区年补水-退水水文过程分析，运用“江湖关系”分期分析等方法，探究了湖区枯水情势演变规律和驱动机制。结果显示：(1)后三峡时期，湖区枯水情势显著加剧，星子站年最低水位平均下降5.7%，低水烈度、低水天数平均增加36.9%、26.6%;(2)单因素分析中，湖区低水天数受长江水流条件的影响大于湖区最低水位、低水烈度;多因素分析中，6个解释因子综合解释了上述3个湖区枯水特征量的演变，相应回归模型的R2依次为0.83、0.83、0.70;(3)贡献分析表明，近20年的枯水整体加剧趋势主要源于长江水流条件改变的综合影响，以湖区年最低水位减小为例，江湖水位流量关系变异贡献138.0%，三峡水库蓄水期汉口径流减小贡献8.4%，三峡水库补水期汉口径流增加(缓解)贡献-34.2%。本研究将为鄱阳湖的枯水情势驱动机制解耦、干旱预警研究提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Changes in the low flow regime of Poyang Lake will greatly affect the security and stability of regional water resources，water environment and water ecology.The analysis of the causes of extreme hydrological events in Poyang Lake and the early warning of disasters under complex conditions are currently difficult problems that need to be broken through.This paper，based on the analysis of the hydrological process of annual water replenishment and water withdrawal in the lake area，explores the evolution law and driving mechanism of the low flow regime in the lake area by using the methods such as the staging analysis of “river-lake relationship”.The results show that：(1)during the post-Three Gorges period，the dry regime in the lake area was significantly intensified，the annual minimum water level at Xingzi station dropped by 5.7% on average，and the low water intensity and low water days increased by 36.9% and 26.6% on average，respectively;(2)in the single factor analysis，the number of low-water days in the lake area is more affected by the flow conditions of the Yangtze River than the low-water intensity and minimum water level;in the multi-factor analysis，six explanatory factors comprehensively explained the evolution of the three above-mentioned low flow variables in the lake area，and the R2 values obtained by the three regression models were 0.83，0.83，and 0.70，respectively;(3)contribution analysis shows that the overall aggravation of the dry in the past 20 years is mainly due to the comprehensive impact of changes in the Yangtze River water flow conditions;taking the decrease in the annual minimum water level in the lake area as an example，the variation in the water level and flow relationship of rivers and lakes contributes 138.0%，Hankou runoff reduction contributes 8.4%，and Hankou runoff increase(mitigation)during the replenishment period of the Three Gorges Reservoir contributes -34.2%.This study will provide a reference for the decoupling of the driving mechanism of the low flow regime in Poyang Lake and the study of drought early warning. |
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