| 门宝辉,吕行,陈仕豪,王红瑞.基于CMIP6耦合WRF的黄河上游复合干旱热浪事件演变规律[J].水利学报,2024,55(8):908-919 |
| 基于CMIP6耦合WRF的黄河上游复合干旱热浪事件演变规律 |
| Evolution law of compound drought and heatwave events in the upper Yellow River basin based on CMIP6 coupled WRF |
| 投稿时间：2023-11-21 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230721 |
| 中文关键词: CMIP6 黄河上游 WRF模式 复合干旱热浪事件 MK趋势检验 |
| 英文关键词: CMIP6 upper Yellow River basin WRF model Compound Drought and Heatwave events MK trend test |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52279005);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 复合干旱热浪事件较传统极端气候事件破坏性更强，近年来在全球范围内发展迅速，黄河上游作为气候敏感区受其影响尤其突出，刻画其特征并分析未来可能气候条件下的演变趋势对事件防控有重要意义。本文提出了一种基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划CMIP6耦合天气预报研究模式WRF的未来气象数据动力降尺度方法。识别了黄河上游不同情景下的复合干旱热浪事件及其特征，揭示了复合事件与单一事件的区别，分析了复合干旱热浪事件的未来演变规律。结果表明：（1）历史期、SSP245和SSP585情景下复合干旱热浪事件较单一事件的温度升高3.8%、13.1%、13.5%，干旱指数降低5.8%、2.6%、2.6%，极端特征更加显著。（2）SSP245情景下复合干旱热浪事件特征呈西南高、东北低的空间分布形式，而在SSP585情景下以北部、东部区域分布最高。（3）未来各情景下区域整体复合干旱热浪事件特征呈显著上升趋势，其中SSP585的上升趋势高于SSP245。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The Compound Drought and Heatwave event is more destructive than the traditional extreme weather event，and it has developed rapidly all over the world in recent years.By which，the upper Yellow River basin is particularly affected as a climate sensitive area.It is of great significance to describe its characteristics and analyze the future evolution trend for event prevention and control.In this paper，a dynamic downscaling method of future meteorological data based on CMIP6 coupled with WRF is proposed.The Compound Drought and Heatwave events and their characteristics under different scenarios in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are identified，the difference between the compound event and the single event is revealed，and the future evolution law of the Compound Drought and Heatwave event is analyzed.The results show that：（1）compared with the single event，the temperature of the Compound Drought and Heatwave event in the historical period，SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios increases by 3.8%，13.1% and 13.5%，while the drought index decreases by 5.8%，2.6% and 2.6%.（2）Under the SSP245 scenario，the characteristics of the Compound Drought and Heatwave event are high in the southwest and low in the northeast，while in the SSP585 scenario，the distribution in the north and east is the highest.（3）In the future，the characteristics of regional Compound Drought and Heatwave events show a significant upward trend，in which the rising trend of SSP585 is higher than that of SSP245. |
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