文章摘要
董立俊,董晓华,马耀明,魏冲,喻丹,苏中波.基于集成时变矩模型和动态蒙特卡洛方法的防洪风险分析[J].水利学报,2024,55(9):1084-1097
基于集成时变矩模型和动态蒙特卡洛方法的防洪风险分析
Flood control risk analysis based on Integrated Time-Varying Moment model and Dynamic Monte Carlo method
投稿时间：2024-02-20  
DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240090
中文关键词: 气候变化  非一致性  集成时变矩模型  防洪风险
英文关键词: climate change  non-stationarity  integrated time-varying moment model  flood control risks
基金项目:第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0103);欧洲空间局、中国国家遥感中心项目(58516);水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究项目(DJ-ZDZX-016-02)
作者单位E-mail
董立俊 三峡大学 水利与环境学院, 湖北 宜昌 443002
三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心, 湖北 宜昌 430002 		 
董晓华 三峡大学 水利与环境学院, 湖北 宜昌 443002
三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心, 湖北 宜昌 430002 		xhdong@ctgu.edu.cn 
马耀明 中国科学院青藏高原研究所青藏高原地球系统与资源环境重点实验室地气作用与气候效应团队, 北京 100101
中国科学院大学 地球与行星科学学院, 北京 100049
兰州大学 大气科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730000
西藏珠穆朗玛特殊大气过程与环境变化国家野外科学观测研究站, 西藏 定日 858200
中国科学院加德满都科教中心, 北京 100101
中国科学院中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心, 巴基斯坦 伊斯兰堡 45320 		 
魏冲 三峡大学 水利与环境学院, 湖北 宜昌 443002
三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心, 湖北 宜昌 430002 		 
喻丹 三峡大学 水利与环境学院, 湖北 宜昌 443002
三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心, 湖北 宜昌 430002 		 
苏中波 特文特大学 地球信息科学与地球观测学院, 荷兰 恩斯赫德 7500 AE  
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中文摘要:
      与作为水利水电工程设计依据的历史水文情势相比，未来受到全球气候变化影响的水文情势将与之产生偏差，进而导致流域内各水电工程水文分析成果的改变。这些成果的改变又将对流域梯级水库群中长期的运行安全和防洪调度产生影响。本文以雅砻江流域为研究区域，通过耦合SWAT水文模型和全球气候模式，定量识别未来气候变化条件下的流域气象水文要素变化情况，在此基础上提出能同时考虑非一致性和历史特大洪水的集成时变矩模型方法，最后选取流域内杨房沟水电站，基于动态蒙特卡洛方法进行未来气候变化条件下的调洪演算。主要结果如下：率定好的SWAT模型模拟精度较高，且在雅砻江流域有较好的空间适用性。在未来气候变化条件下，麦地龙站洪峰流量序列在SSP1-2.6情景下，从现在到2070年左右小幅上升，随后小幅下降;在SSP2-4.5情景下，从现在到2070年左右明显上升，然后趋于稳定;仅在SSP5-8.5情景下持续上升，且上升趋势非常明显。在未来气候变化条件下，除SSP1-2.6情景的超校核洪水位风险率外，其他情景下杨房沟水电站超设计洪水位、校核洪水位风险率较设计标准均明显增大。未来全球气候变化将对雅砻江流域水循环和陆气水分交换产生显著影响，导致水文极端事件更加突出，流域内基于稳定环境下水文情势及水文分析成果规划建设的水电站(水库)将面临更大的防洪风险。本文提出的融合集成时变矩和动态蒙特卡洛模型的防洪风险分析方法，在考虑未来全球气候变化导致的非一致性基础上同时融入了历史特大洪水信息，经验证适用性较好。研究成果可为相关运行管理部门应对相应风险和指导实际生产提供一定参考。
英文摘要:
      Compared with the historical hydrological situation that serves as the basis for the design of water conservancy and hydropower projects,the situation affected by global climate change in future will deviate from it.This will lead to changes of hydrological analysis results of runoff and design floods.As a result,the changes will affect the long-term operation safety and flood control of cascade reservoirs in the basin.This study takes the Yalong River basin as the research area,and quantitatively identifies the changes in meteorological and hydrological elements of the basin under future climate change conditions through coupling the SWAT hydrological model and global climate model.Based on this,an Integrated Time-Varying Moment (ITVM) model that can consider non-stationarity and historical extraordinary floods (HEFs) information jointly is proposed to carry out the non-stationary frequency analysis.Finally,the flood control risk assessment of the Yangfanggou hydropower station under future climate change conditions is conducted based on the Dynamic Monte Carlo (DMC) method.The main results are as follows：the calibrated SWAT model has high simulation accuracy and good spatial applicability in the Yalong River Basin.Under the future climate change conditions,the peak flow series of Maidilong station increases slightly from now to around 2070 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,followed by a slight decrease;Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,it increases from now to around 2070 significantly,and then tends to stabilize;Only in the SSP5-8.5 scenario it continues to rise,and the upward trend is obvious.Under future climate change conditions,except for the risk of exceeding the design flood level under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the risk of exceeding the design flood level and check flood level of Yangfanggou Hydropower Station have significantly increased compared to the design standards.Future global climate change will have a significant impact on the water cycle and land-air water exchange in the Yalong River basin,leading to more severe hydrological extreme events.The hydropower stations (reservoirs) planned and constructed in the basin based on the hydrological analysis results in stable environment will face greater flood control risks.The flood control risk analysis method integrating the ITVM and DMC model proposed in this article can consider the effects of HEFs and the non-stationarity of flood series caused by future global climate change together,and it has been verified to have good applicability in practice.The results can provide certain references for the relevant management institutions to deal with flood control risks and guide actual production.
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