| 刘晓燕,王鹏,党素珍.黄河水沙变化：历史、现状与未来[J].水利学报,2024,55(10):1135-1145 |
| 黄河水沙变化：历史、现状与未来 |
| Variations in water and sediment of the Yellow River：Historical perspectives， current status，and future outlook |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-10 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240433 |
| 中文关键词: 黄河 水沙变化 黄土高原 历史时期 现状情势 未来预测 |
| 英文关键词: Yellow River water and sediment changes the Loess Plateau historical periods current situation future predictions |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201105) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1905 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在现状防洪工程格局下，实现长治久安，核心在于黄河下游能否长期“河床不抬高”，而决定河床淤积抬高的关键因素是水沙条件。本文分析了2200多年来黄河下游决溢频次、黄土高原气候和社会环境变化，利用史料、前人研究成果和实测数据等，对不同历史时期黄河水沙的变化情况进行了分析。研究表明，从西汉时期至1970年代，黄河水沙量总体呈现为“水量越来越少、沙量越来越多”的趋势：在东汉故道行河的前837年(公元70—907年)，黄河沙量只有4亿~5.5亿t/a、下游水量超600亿m3/a，随后的127年黄河沙量增至7亿t/a左右、下游水量减至580亿m3/a;1579—1918年黄河沙量增加到15亿t/a、下游水量减至570亿m3/a;1933—1979年是黄土高原产沙最丰的时期，黄河潼关站实测输沙量为16.2亿t/a，若还原坝库拦沙后“天然”输沙量达19.2亿t/a。1980年代至今，黄河水沙呈现出“水沙均减”的趋势，其中，2000—2023年潼关站实测输沙量为2.34亿t/a，还原坝库拦沙后“天然”输沙量为5.5亿t/a，与唐代持平，下游实测径流量290亿m3/a，是唐末的46%。未来，依靠持之以恒的水土保持，黄河沙量或许可以长期控制在4亿~5亿t/a，达到东汉故道行河前期的来沙水平，但因下游来水量难超270亿m3/a，黄河下游现行河道的行河寿命难以比肩东汉故道。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Under the current framework of flood control system，maintaining a stable riverbed elevation over time is crucial for achieving long-term stability in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The water-sediment condition is the critical factor that determines sediment accumulation and riverbed elevation.Utilizing historical records，previous research and measured data，this study analyzes flood occurrence frequencies in the lower Yellow River over the past 2200 years，as well as climate and socio-environmental changes on the Loess Plateau，and analyzes changes of water and sediment of the Yellow River in different historical periods.The results show that from the Western Han Dynasty to the 1970s，there is a general trend of decreasing water volume and increasing sediment load.During the Eastern Han Dynasty (70-907 AD)，sediment load was only 400-550 million t/a，with downstream water volume exceeding 60 billion m3/a.In the subsequent 127 years，sediment load increased to around 700 million t/a，while downstream water volume decreased to 58 billion m3/a.From 1579 to 1918，sediment load increased to 1.5 billion t/a，while downstream water volume decreased to 57 billion m3/a.The period from 1933 to 1979 was the period of maximum sediment yield on the Loess Plateau，with the measured sediment discharge at Tongguan Station reaching 1.62 billion t/a and the restored dammed sediment reaching 1.92 billion t/a.Since the 1980s，water and sediment discharge of the Yellow River has shown a decreasing trend，with the annual average measured sediment discharge of Tongguan Station being 0.234 billion t/a from 2000 to 2023，and reaching 0.55 billion t/a by restored dammed sediment，which is comparable to sediment discharge in the late Tang Dynasty.Downstream measured runoff was 29 billion m3/a，accounting for 46% of runoff in the late Tang Dynasty.In the future，relying on sustained soil and water conservation，sediment discharge of the Yellow River may be controlled within 400-500 million t/a，reaching levels comparable to that in the earlier stage of the old course of the Yellow River of the Eastern Han Dynasty.However，due to downstream water volume unlikely to exceed 27 billion m3/a，the operational lifespan of the current lower Yellow River channel may not match that of the old course of the Eastern Han Dynasty. |
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