| 白涛,周家丰,辛葱葱,任泽昊,华鑫,肖瑜.引汉济渭工程调水区多源风险评估与对策研究[J].水利学报,2024,55(10):1221-1235 |
| 引汉济渭工程调水区多源风险评估与对策研究 |
| Study on multi-source risk assessment and counter measures in the water transfer area of the Hanjiang-Weihe Project |
| 投稿时间：2023-10-04 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230608 |
| 中文关键词: 供水风险 引汉济渭工程调水区 风险调度模型 工程运行管理 风险等级评估 |
| 英文关键词: water supply risk water transfer area of Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Diversion Project risk scheduling model engineering management operation risk level assessment |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206700，2022YFC3202300);国家自然科学基金项目(52179025);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划-联合基金项目(2021JLM-44) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评估引汉济渭跨流域调水工程本身及运行管理行为中多源风险导致供水不足的可能性，构建了跨流域调水工程水库-泵站-电站的风险评估框架。将工程管理中的行为与经验以随机、模拟、优化三种调度模式进行数学表达，设置了兼顾工程失能与运行管理的单源、多源调度风险模式和方案集;建立并仿真计算了三种调度模型，获得了不同风险方案的动态调度过程及造成的供水风险;制定了跨流域调水工程的调度风险分级基准，采取专家打分法获取事件发生的初始概率区间，采用集值统计法和改进耦合度模型定量估计各方案发生概率，基于供水风险指标定量估算各方案的损失严重度;划分了风险矩阵的等级标准，结合最低合理可行(ALARP)准则明确了风险可接受程度，提出了非工程措施以管控风险，为引汉济渭工程调水区风险评估和防控提供了理论依据。研究发现：(1)三种调度模式中仅优化调度可满足调水15亿m3、95%供水保证率的供水目标，且相较于随机调度方式，供水能力提升了13%;(2)单源风险方案的供水风险逐渐向长时间缺水过程发展，多源风险方案面临的调度情况更加复杂，供水风险在各个维度均处于危险状态;(3)处于ALARP区域的风险事件占比超过60%，与工程相关的风险多为小概率高危害式风险，应优先解决处于ALARP区域并预防不可接受区域的风险事件;(4)针对发生概率小但危害性高的供水风险，制定了水库下游人员转移等应急方案，以降低潜在的供水损失。研究结果对于跨流域调水工程的风险管理具有积极的推动作用，强化了ALARP准则在调水工程风险评估中的应用价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To assess the possibility of water shortage caused by multi-source risks in both the Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Diversion Project(HWWDP)and its operation management behaviors，a risk assessment framework for reservoir-pumping station-power station in the inter-basin water transfer project has been constructed.The behaviors and experiences in operation management are expressed mathematically through three scheduling modes：random，simulation，and optimization.It sets up single-source and multi-source scheduling risk models and solution sets considering engineering incapacity and operational management.Three scheduling models are established and simulated to obtain the dynamic scheduling process of different risk scenarios and the resulting water supply risks.The paper formulates the grading criteria for scheduling risks of the HWWDP.Initial probability intervals of event occurrence are obtained through expert scoring method.Frequency of occurrence of each scenario is quantitatively estimated using set-value statistical method and improved coupling degree model.The severity of water supply risk indicators for each scenario is quantitatively estimated.Risk matrix levels are defined considering both the frequency of occurrence and severity of losses of risk scenarios.By combining the As Low As Reasonably Practicable(ALARP)criterion，the acceptable level of risk is clearly defined，and non-engineering measures are proposed to control risks.This provides a theoretical basis for risk assessment and prevention of the HWWDP.The study found that：(1)Only optimization scheduling among the three scheduling modes can meet the water supply target of 15 billion cubic meters with a 95% assurance rate，and the water supply capacity is increased by 13% compared to the random scheduling mode.(2)The water supply risk of single-source risk scenarios gradually develops towards a long-term water shortage process.Multi-source risk scenarios face more complex scheduling situations，and the water supply risk is in a dangerous state in all dimensions.(3)The proportion of risk events in the ALARP region exceeds 60%.Risks related to engineering are mostly small probability high consequence risks，which should be prioritized for resolution in the ALARP region and prevention in the unacceptable region.(4)Emergency plans such as downstream personnel evacuation are formulated for low-probability but high-consequence water supply risks to reduce potential water supply losses.The research results have a positive promoting effect on the risk management of the HWWDP，and strengthen the application value of the ALARP criterion in risk assessment of water transfer projects. |
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