| Basin water resources system is a meteorological and hydrological - water network - economic and social - ecological environment composite system, extreme dry water basin water resources security should not only pay attention to the amount of water shortage, but also need to consider the process of water shortage damage and the response process, to ensure that after experiencing the shortage of water basin water resources system can be restored to normal, that is, to deal with the resilience of the extreme dry water. The resilience means that when facing external shocks such as climate change and drought, the system can maintain its function, structure and service capacity through a series of regulatory measures and dynamic responses. This paper utilizes the Yellow River Basin as a case study, examining the dual natural-social response processes of water resources within the basin's system under conditions of extreme low-flow perturbation. The study proposes a 3Rs (Robustness-Resistance-Recovery) resilience framework, encompassing the system's inherent stability (robustness), its capacity to withstand short-term pressures (resistance), and its ability to gradually recover to a normal state post-disturbance (recovery). A comprehensive 16-index evaluation system was constructed, and the water resources system resilience was quantified using an improved TOPSIS model with combined weighting for the period from 1990 to 2022. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that both the connotation and coupling effects of the system exhibit a significant upward trend. Based on large systems theory, key drivers of water resources system resilience evolution in the Yellow River Basin were identified through a combination of geo-detectors and the K-Means clustering algorithm. The identification results were validated through global sensitivity analysis, leading to recommendations for enhancing the basin's water resources system resilience. The study analyzes and proposes regulation strategies for the Yellow River Basin to cope with extreme water depletion, considering scenarios of regulatory measures from both the supply and demand sides. The research provides theoretical and technical support for constructing a resilient Yellow River Basin and improving water resources security in the basin. |