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| 基于直接数值模拟方法的坝址最大可信地震危险性评估体系 |
| Assessment Framework for Maximum Credible Earthquake Hazards at Dam Sites Based on Direct Numerical Simulation Method |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-27 修订日期：2025-05-30 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 最大可信地震危险性、最大可信地震动、直接数值模拟、工程设防参数 |
| 英文关键词: maximum credible earthquake hazard, maximum credible ground motion, direct numerical simulation, engineering design parameters |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 我国西部诸多高坝水电站工程位于高地震烈度地区,面临遭遇超设计水准的地震动作用风险。为了合理评估坝址可能遭遇的极端地震荷载,本文考虑地震断层破裂时空过程的随机性与不确定性,提出了坝址最大可信地震危险性的概念,并构建了相应的评估体系。该评估体系采用基于物理机制的宽频带地震动直接数值模拟方法,考虑坝址周边区域特定断层、传播路径以及工程场址地质地形条件等关键因素,生成海量最大可信地震情景,统计坝址地震动参数概率分布,确定工程设防参数。本文提出的最大可信地震危险性评估体系可以为强震区工程抗震设计和安全评估提供更为合理的地震荷载,对保障重大水电工程的抗震安全具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Many high dams in western China are located in regions with high seismic intensity and face the risk of experiencing ground motions exceeding design levels. To reasonably assess the extreme earthquake scenarios that the dam site may encounter, this study introduces the concept of Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) hazard for the dam site, considering the randomness and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal rupture process of earthquake faults, and establishes a corresponding assessment framework. This framework employs physics-based broadband ground-motion simulations, taking into account key factors such as specific faults around the dam, propagation path, and local site conditions. It generates a vast number of MCE scenarios, statistically analyzes the probability distribution of ground motion parameters at the dam site, and determines engineering design parameters. The proposed assessment framework provides a more rational seismic load for seismic design and safety evaluation in regions prone to strong earthquakes, which is of great significance for ensuring the seismic safety of major hydropower projects. |
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