| 谢雨祚,郭生练,钟斯睿,汪肖雅,王俊.金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水计算方法研究[J].水利学报,2025,56(3):354-363 |
| 金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水计算方法研究 |
| Research on design flood estimation method during operation period for cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-19 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240382 |
| 中文关键词: 水库运行期 设计洪水 洪水地区组成 非一致性洪水频率分析 汛限水位 汛控水位 金沙江下游 |
| 英文关键词: reservoir operation period design flood flood regional composition non-stationary flood frequency analysis flood-limited water level flood control water level lower Jinsha River |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目(U2340205);中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(Z242402005) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以金沙江下游梯级水库为研究对象，采用时变P-Ⅲ型适线法和最可能地区组成法两种途径分别隐式和显式考虑上游水库群的调蓄影响，计算水库运行期设计洪水及采用同频率法放大设计洪水过程线，推求水库运行汛期控制水位(简称汛控水位)，分析对比发电效益。结果表明：①两种途径计算的水库运行期设计洪水均小于建设期设计洪水;时变P-Ⅲ型适线法无需对流量资料进行还原计算且无需考虑水库调度过程，而最可能地区组成法从上游至下游对各水库逐级调洪演算，计算复杂但实用性强;②上游水库的调蓄作用对下游洪水的削减显著，基于时变P-Ⅲ型适线法(最可能地区组成法)，向家坝水库运行期1000年一遇设计洪峰、3 d、7 d和15 d洪量的削减率分别为37.30%(41.65%)、35.96%(39.66%)、36.82%(35.72%)和28.03%(26.76%);③维持原设计防洪标准不变，经调洪演算求得乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡和向家坝水库的汛控水位分别为955.6、794.6、572.3和373.2 m，与原设计汛限水位相比，6—9月份梯级水库按汛控水位运行，可增发电量27.6亿kW·h (+2.6%)，经济效益显著。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River were selected as case study.Both the time-varying P-Ⅲ curve fitting (Tv-P3/CF) method and the most likely flood regional composition (MLFRC) method were employed to estimate the design flood during the reservoir operation period，considering the regulation effects of upstream reservoirs in implicit and explicit way，respectively.The design flood hydrographs were amplified by the same frequency method，and the reservoir flood control water levels (FCWLs) were determined.The results indicate that：(1) The design floods during operation period calculated by two methods are consistently lower than those during the construction period.The Tv-P3/CF method offers covariate without the need to consider the reservoir operation and restore flow data series，while the MLFRC method，which performs step-by-step flood routing from upstream to downstream for each reservoir，is much complex in its calculation process but holds practical significance.(2) The regulation effect of upper reservoirs significantly reduces downstream floods，1，000-year design flood peak，3-day，7-day，and 15-day flood volumes estimated by the Tv-P3/CF (MLFRC) method have reduced about 37.30%(41.65%)，35.96%(39.66%)，36.82%(35.72%)，and 28.03%(26.76%) at the Xiangjiaba Reservoir，respectively.(3) Maintaining the original flood prevention standards unchanged，the FCWLs derived by flood regulating for the Wudongde-Baihetan-Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs are 955.6、794.6、572.3 and 373.2 m，respectively.Compared to reservoir operation based on the flood-limited water levels，the operation of cascade reservoirs based on FCWLs can generate 2.76 billion kW·h more power (+2.6%) from June to September annually，which has significant economic benefits. |
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