| 谭伟丽,赵勇,王庆明,刘蓉.海河流域500年尺度降水周期性分析与预测[J].水利学报,2025,56(4):466-476 |
| 海河流域500年尺度降水周期性分析与预测 |
| Analysis of 500-year precipitation periodicity and prediction in Haihe River Basin |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-07 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240348 |
| 中文关键词: 海河流域 LSTM模型 降水重建 降水周期 预测 |
| 英文关键词: Haihe River Basin LSTM precipitation reconstruction precipitation periodicity prediction |
| 基金项目:国家杰出青年科学基金项目（52025093）；国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC3200204） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 周期性是降水年代际变化的基本特征，基于近60年序列数据的年代际周期性分析，能否代表区域降水的真实年代际周期一直存在争论，对未来的预测结果也难以令人信服，因此更长时间降水序列重建及年代际周期性分析尤为必要。本研究基于长短期记忆网络（Long Short-Term Memory，LSTM）算法，结合历史旱涝等级记录、站点监测数据等，重建了海河流域546年降水序列，并分析了降水年代际周期性变化及未来演变趋势。主要结果有：（1）建立了基于LSTM算法的旱涝-降水模型，重建了海河流域1477—2022年降水序列；（2）546年降水序列显示海河流域存在33、66和17 a三个显著周期，目前主周期为33 a，但66 a周期的振幅信号在增强，PDO指数呈现64 a周期性变化，为66 a降水周期振幅强烈现象提供了依据；（3）目前海河流域降水处于偏多时期，33 a周期下推测2022年之后海河流域降水偏多时期75%概率会持续4～8 a，随后步入降水偏少时期，偏少时期约86%概率持续15～18 a。海河流域水安全应对必须未雨绸缪，迎接干旱周期的严峻挑战。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Periodicity is a fundamental characteristic of precipitation sequences. There has been a long-standing debate on whether the periodic analysis based on data from station sequences over the past 60 years can represent the true regional precipitation cycles，making future predictions less convincing. Therefore，it is particularly necessary to reconstruct precipitation sequences over longer periods and conduct periodic analyses. This study，based on the Long Short-Term Memory（Long Short-Term Memory，LSTM）algorithm，combined with historical records of drought and flood levels，as well as station monitoring data，reconstructed a 546-year precipitation sequence in the Haihe River Basin and analyzed the periodic variations and future trends of precipitation. The main results are as follows.（1）A drought-flood-precipitation model based on the LSTM algorithm was established，reconstructing the precipitation sequence in the Haihe River Basin from 1477 to 2022.（2）The 546-year precipitation sequence reveals three significant cycles in the Haihe River Basin：a 33-year cycle，a 66-year cycle，and a 17-year cycle. Currently，the dominant cycle is the 33-year，but the amplitude signal of the 66-year cycle is strengthening. The PDO index shows a 64- year periodic variation，providing a basis for the intense amplitude of the 66-year precipitation cycle.（3）At present， precipitation in the Haihe River Basin is in a period of above-average rainfall. According to the 33-year cycle，it is predicted that there is a 75% probability that the above-average rainfall period in the Haihe River Basin will continue for 4 to 8 years since 2022，followed by a below-average rainfall period，which is expected to last approximately 15 to 18 years with an 86% probability. Adequate preparedness for water security in the Haihe River Basin is essential to meet the severe challenges posed by drought cycles. |
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