文章摘要
南水北调中线工程冰期输水气温寒潮等级及阈值研究
Cold Wave Grades and Air Temperature Thresholds during Wintertime Water Diversion in Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China
投稿时间：2025-04-14  修订日期：2025-07-25
DOI：
中文关键词: 3参数Log-logistic分布  气温寒潮指数  寒潮等级  南水北调中线  冬季输水  气温阈值
英文关键词: 3 - parameter Log - logistic distribution  Temperature Cold Wave Index  Cold wave Grades  Middle Route of South - to - North Water Diversion  wintertime water transfer  Temperature threshold
基金项目::国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202500)；国家自然科学(U2243221, U2243239,52479080)；中国水科院科研专项项目(HY0145B032021, HY0145B052024),流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室自由探索课题(SKL2024YJTS09)
作者单位邮编
王涛* 中国水利水电科学研究院 100038
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中文摘要:
      南水北调中线工程线路局部突发寒潮易引发冰情,严重时导致凌情灾害,增加了南水北调中线工程冬季输水调度运行的复杂性,科学精准评估工程沿线局部寒潮对冰情的影响,确定冰情发生发展的气温阈值和寒潮等级,可为缩短冰期时长、降低冰期影响范围、挖潜输水能力提供技术支撑。本研究建立了基于3参数Log-logistic分布概率密度函数的气温寒潮指标法(TCI),以保定站为例定义了基于累计负气温、降温幅度和降温连续性为指标参数的南水北调中线典型站点寒潮等级TCI分类法。通过冰情原型观测对比表明:新的气温寒潮指数法对寒潮等级的分类在发生强度和次数上均能体现南水北调中线冰情的严重程度；初冰时间发生均在第一次寒潮或负积温第一次达到寒潮阈值区间。该气温寒潮指标法提出的累计负积温阈值和寒潮等级分类方法可为北方河流或长距离明渠调水工程冬季气温和冰情预测提供支撑。
英文摘要:
      The local cold waves along the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project( MRSNWD ) are prone to triggering ice conditions, which, in severe cases, may lead to ice lies disasters. This increases the complexity of wintertime water transfer operations for the MRSNWD. Scientifically and precisely evaluating the impact of local cold waves along the project on ice conditions, and determining the temperature thresholds for the occurrence and development of ice conditions as well as cold wave grades, can provide technical support for shortening the duration of the ice period, reducing the impact range of the ice period, and tapping the water transfer potential.This study develops a Temperature Cold Wave Index (TCI) based on the probability density function of the 3-parameter Log-logistic distribution(LLD3). Taking Baoding Station as a case, a TCI-based cold wave grade classification method for MRSNWD is defined, with index parameters including cumulative negative temperature, temperature drop range, and temperature drop continuity. Comparison with prototype observations of ice conditions in the MRSNWD indicates that the cold wave grade classification using the TCI method effectively reflects the severity of ice conditions in terms of both intensity and frequency. The initial ice formation time occurs either during the first cold wave or when the cumulative negative temperature reaches the cold wave threshold for the first time. The cumulative negative temperature threshold and the cold wave grade classification method proposed by the new TCI method can provide valuable support for winter temperature and ice condition prediction in northern rivers or long - distance open - channel water diversion projects.
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