| 张为,李昕,翟少军,时玉龙,刘新波,董炳江.三峡水库次洪期间降雨特征对洪水过程的影响[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):576-586 |
| 三峡水库次洪期间降雨特征对洪水过程的影响 |
| Influence of rainfall characteristics on the flooding process during flood events in the Three Gorges Reservoir |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-24 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240392 |
| 中文关键词: 三峡水库 场次洪水 降雨特征 时空分布 洪水分类 |
| 英文关键词: Three Gorges Reservoir flood events rainfall characteristics spatial and temporal distribution flood classification |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金长江水科学联合基金项目（U2040218）；中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目（0711633）；中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目（Q231100333654） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 揭示降雨特征与洪水的内在关联对提高预报精度、优化水库调度和制定有效措施至关重要。为深化认识三峡水库次洪期间降雨特征对洪水过程的非线性响应关系，本研究利用2003—2020年三峡入库寸滩站流量及流域降雨数据，综合运用数理统计、K-means聚类和随机森林模型，分析了降雨特征与洪水过程之间的相互作用。研究发现：基于降雨驱动的洪水分类方法识别出寸滩以上流域具有5类降雨类型及其对应的洪水过程，该方法能有效区分洪水总量、洪峰流量及涨落历时，适用于资料匮乏的流域。降雨量级和基底流量是三峡入库洪水主要影响因素，贡献率分别占48.45%和36.25%，降雨时程差异和空间分布的影响较小。基底流量是洪水总量和洪峰流量的共同关键因素，贡献率在20%～43%之间，降雨变化对洪水总量和洪峰流量的贡献率并不一致。本研究增进了对流域降雨特征及洪水形成机制的理解，为长江上游及类似地区防洪减灾提供科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Investigating the intrinsic link between rainfall intensity，its spatio-temporal distribution，and the flood process is crucial for enhancing flood forecasting precision，optimizing reservoir operations，and devising flood mitigation strategies. In order to deepen understanding of the nonlinear response relationship between rainfall characteristics and flood processes upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir（TGR），this study employed mathematical statistics，K-means clustering，and random forest models to analyze the interaction between rainfall characteristics and flood processes based on the flow data from the Cuntan station and corresponding basin rainfall data from 2003 to 2020. The study's key findings indicate that the rainfall-driven flood classification method identifies the watershed above Cuntan with five types of rainfall patterns and their corresponding flood processes，and the method can effectively differentiate between total flood amount，peak flow and rise-fall ephemeris，which is suitable for watersheds with scarce data. Rainfall intensity and base flow emerge as the principal determinants of floods entering the TGR，contributing 48.45% and 36.25%，respectively，while the impact of rainfall timing differences and spatial distribution is relatively small. Basal flow is the common key factor of total flood volume and peak flood flow，with contribution rates ranging from 20% to 43%，and the contribution of rainfall to total flood volume and peak flood flow is asynchronous. This research deepens the comprehension of rainfall characteristics and flood genesis mechanisms in the upper Yangtze River basin，offering a scientific foundation for flood control and disaster reduction efforts in the region and comparable areas. |
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