| 何国华,赵勇,李雯晴,秦长海,王浩,何凡.1990—2021年中国消费水量演变特征及影响因素分析[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):624-633 |
| 1990—2021年中国消费水量演变特征及影响因素分析 |
| Analysis of the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of water consumption in China from 1990 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-22 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240461 |
| 中文关键词: 国际贸易 消费水量 虚拟水 演变特征 不确定性 |
| 英文关键词: international trade water consumption virtual water evolution characteristics uncertainty |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC3200204）；国家自然科学基金项目（52025093） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 从消费侧评估真实水量需求有助于科学认知供需水格局，提升我国水安全保障能力。本文依托1990—2021年全球190个经济体的投入产出数据，通过优化改进用水系数测算方法，明确了过去30年我国消费水量演变态势，解析了消费水量变化的关键驱动要素。研究发现：我国虚拟水贸易以2014年为节点从净出口转向净进口，目前我国进口的虚拟水主要来自发展中国家的农业产品，出口的虚拟水主要流向发达经济体的轻工业和机械设备制造业。根据中国水资源公报数据统计，尽管我国用水总量从2013年开始持续下降，但如果考虑到虚拟水净进口，过去30年全国消费水量规模仍在稳定增加，2021年我国消费水量为6363.2亿m3，超出实际统计用水443亿m3。目前，我国人均消费水量为450.5 m3，其中国内供给的贡献为92.7%，国际贸易的贡献达到7.3%。相比于人口增长，消费水平和节水效率对消费水量变化的影响更加显著，是过去30年我国消费水量变化的主导因素。基于研究结果，本文进一步分析了国际贸易对我国消费水量保障的支撑作用及潜在风险，论证了研究结果的不确定性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Assessing the real water use demand from the consumption side is helpful to scientifically understand the pattern of water supply and demand. Based on the input-output data of 190 economies in the world from 1990 to 2021，this paper analyzes the evolution of China’s water consumption in the past 30 years by optimizing and improving the calculation method of water use coefficient，and identifies the key driving factors of the change in water consumption. The results show that China’s virtual water trade changed from net export to net import in 2014. At present，the virtual water imported by China mainly comes from agricultural products in developing countries，while the virtual water exported mainly flows to light industry and machinery and equipment manufacturing in developed economies. According to China's Water Resources Bulletin，despite a continuous decline in total water consumption since 2013，considering the net import of virtual water，the scale of national water consumption has increased steadily over the past 30 years，reaching 636.32 billion m3 in 2021，exceeding the actual statistical water consumption by 44.3 billion m3. Currently，China's per capita water consumption is 450.5 m3，of which domestic supply contributes 92.7%，while international trade contributes 7.3%. Compared to population growth，consumption levels and water-saving efficiency have a more significant impact on changes in water consumption，serving as the dominant factors determining the variation in China's water consumption over the past 30 years. Based on the research findings，this study analyzes the supporting role and potential risks of international trade in safeguarding China's water consumption，and demonstrates the uncertainties associated with the research results. |
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