| 杨明明,赵勇,秦长海,朱永楠,何国华,王丽珍.南水北调东、中线一期工程综合效益评估及预测[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):659-671 |
| 南水北调东、中线一期工程综合效益评估及预测 |
| Comprehensive benefit evaluation and prediction for Phase I of the East and Middle Routes of South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-12 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240522 |
| 中文关键词: 南水北调工程 社会经济效益 生态效益 CGE模型 |
| 英文关键词: South-to-North Water Diversion Project social and economic benefits ecological benefits CGE Model |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC3200204）；国家自然科学基金项目（52239004，52025093） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 跨流域调水工程建设周期长、投资规模大、影响范围广，其综合效益往往难以清晰界定。本文从全生命期视角梳理了工程效益发挥途径，构建了基于要素驱动分析的评估方法，并结合可计算一般均衡CGE模型，分别对南水北调东、中线一期工程2003—2023年的综合效益进行评估，对2024—2035年不同情景下的供水效益进行模拟预测。结果显示：截至2023年底，东、中线一期工程累计正效益为23 490.9亿元，主要包括投资、供水及生态效益；负效益为2525.7亿元，主要源于产业发展机会和水生态环境容量的损失。工程累计净效益为20 965.2亿元，社会经济效益和生态效益分别占比75％和25％。自2020年以来，随着产业调整政策及治理工程的持续推进，工程负效益与正效益的比值由2006年的0.15下降为0.05。本文模型模拟结果显示，2024—2035年，工程在高速增长供水情景下，将累计产生37 778亿元的供水效益，分别是低速增长和中速增长供水情景下的1.10和1.21倍。研究表明从全生命期视角对调水工程综合效益进行长系列模拟评价，有助于全面客观地认识其多重影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The inter-basin water diversion project has a long construction period，large investment scale，and wide impact range，and its comprehensive benefits are often difficult to define clearly. From the perspective of the whole life cycle，this paper reviews the path of project benefits，constructs an evaluation method based on factor-driven analysis，and combines it with a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of Phase I of the East and Middle Routes of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from 2003 to 2023，and to simulate and predict the water supply benefits under different water supply growth rate scenarios from 2024 to 2035. The results show that by the end of 2023，the Phase I Project of the East and Middle Routes had accumulated a total positive benefit of 2.349 trillion RMB，mainly comprising investment，water supply，and ecological benefits；the negative impact amounted to 252.5 billion RMB，primarily attributed to lost industrial development opportunities and reduced water ecosystem capacity. The cumulative net benefit of the project is 2096.5 billion RMB，of which social and economic benefits account for 75% and ecological benefits account 25%. Since 2020，with the continuous advancement of industrial adjustment policies and governance projects，the ratio of negative to positive benefits of the project has dropped from 0.15 in 2006 to 0.05. The simulation results of the SNWDP-DCGE model show that from 2024 to 2035，the project will generate a total of 3.778 trillion RMB in water supply benefits under the high-speed growth water supply scenario，which are 1.10 and 1.21 times of those under the low-speed and medium-speed growth water supply scenarios，respectively. A long series of evaluations of the comprehensive benefits of water diversion projects from a full life cycle perspective will help to fully and objectively understand their multiple impacts. |
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