| 宋志远,段凯,赵勇,翟家齐,翁白莎,董义阳.中国流域水碳平衡模拟模型研究II：模型验证与应用[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):683-691 |
| 中国流域水碳平衡模拟模型研究II：模型验证与应用 |
| A terrestrial water-carbon balance model for China II: Model validation and application |
| 投稿时间：2024-04-17 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240214 |
| 中文关键词: 水碳耦合模拟 WaSSI-CN 模型验证 水碳通量分析 时空分布 |
| 英文关键词: water-carbon coupling simulation WaSSI-CN model validation water-carbon exchanges analysis spatiotemporal distribution |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC3200205）；国家自然科学基金项目（52379032）；广东省“珠江人才计划”引进创新创业团队（2019ZT08G090）；广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目（2023A1515012241，2023B1515040028）；广东省科技计划项目（2024B1212040001） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为解析复杂变化环境对区域水碳循环的多要素动态驱动过程，开展全国范围的分布式水碳耦合模拟研究具有重要意义。本研究基于所构建的中国水碳耦合模型WaSSI-CN，对中国水碳平衡关键要素进行模拟重构，并使用193个水文站流量数据与3种遥感数据集验证了该模型的适用性。结果表明，模型对于径流、蒸散发、总初级生产力均取得了较好的模拟效果，其中径流模拟的纳什效率、Kling-Gupta效率、百分比偏差、相关系数的均值分别达到0.66、0.67、-0.57%和0.85。计算结果表明：1982—2018年间，林地对全国产水和固碳效益的贡献率分别为48.32%和46.26%，耕地的贡献率分别为25.00%和31.61%；在降水增长、气温升高、林地扩张等因素的共同驱动下，中国地区水碳通量总体呈增长趋势，其中蒸散发与总初级生产力增长更为显著，径流演变则呈现出更强的区域差异性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To understand the dynamic driving mechanism of complex changing environments on regional water and carbon cycles，it is critical to undertake national-scale studies on distributed water-carbon coupling simulation. Based on the previously constructed WaSSI-CN model，we reconstructed the key elements of China's water-carbon balance and validated the model using streamflow data from 193 hydrological stations and three remote sensing datasets. The results show that the model achieved good simulation effects for runoff，evapotranspiration（ET），and gross primary productivity（GPP）. The average Nash efficiency，Kling-Gupta efficiency，percent bias，and correlation coefficient for runoff simulation reached 0.66，0.67，-0.57%，and 0.85，respectively. Between 1982 and 2018，forested and cultivated lands contributed 48.32% and 25.00% to water yield over China，and 46.26% and 31.61% to carbon sequestration，respectively. Under the combined influence of factors such as increased precipitation，rising temperatures，and forest expansion，water and carbon fluxes in China have shown an overall increasing trend. ET and GPP have exhibited more significant growth，and runoff evolution has demonstrated larger regional differences. |
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