| 鲁帆,肖伟华,严登华,王浩.非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述[J].水利学报,2017,48(4):379-389 |
| 非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述 |
| Progresses on statistical modeling of non-stationary extreme sequences and its application in climate and hydrological change |
| 投稿时间：2016-03-25 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160281 |
| 中文关键词: 非平稳性 极值统计建模 气候变化 水文时间序列 协变量 |
| 英文关键词: non-stationary statistical modeling of extreme values climate change hydrological sequences covariate |
| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目（2013CB036406）；国家自然科学基金项目（51679252）；国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFA0601503） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 4331 |
| 全文下载次数: 5710 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 伴随全球气候变暖和平均海平面持续上升，极端气象事件出现的频率增加、强度增大，气候变化已经成为导致水文极值非平稳性的一个重要原因。本文总结了气候-水文变化研究中常用非平稳时间序列极值统计模型的结构以及统计推断方法，从降雨极值变化、洪水极值变化等方面分析了非平稳时间序列极值统计模型在气候-水文变化研究中的典型应用案例。国内外研究表明：非平稳时间序列极值统计模型能体现水文极值随时间或协变量的变化情势，非平稳情况下水文极值重现期和风险的概念和计算方法与传统平稳时间序列的频率分析相比存在显著差异。最后对需要进一步研究的问题进行了展望。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the context of global warming and average rise in sea level,obvious changes are witnessed with regard to the frequency and intensity of major extreme weather and climate events.Climate change has become an important cause of non-stationarity in hydrology.Several approaches have been proposed to tackle non-stationarity of hydro-meteorological extremes in the literatures.The structures and extreme inference methods of non-stationary sequences model applied usually in climate and hydrology change are summarized in this paper.Some typical examples in statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary hydrologic sequences are analyzed.The applications demonstrate that changes of hydrology variables according to time or covariates can be reflected by statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary sequences,and the return period and risk assessment for non-stationary situations can be quite different from those corresponding to stationary conditions.Finally,perspectives on statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary sequences are proposed. |
|
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |