| 张迎,黄生志,黄强,李沛,马岚.基于Copula函数的新型综合干旱指数构建与应用[J].水利学报,2018,49(6):703-714 |
| 基于Copula函数的新型综合干旱指数构建与应用 |
| Construction and application of a new comprehensive drought index based on Copula function |
| 投稿时间：2017-12-14 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20171207 |
| 中文关键词: 干旱 综合干旱指数 Copula函数 太阳黑子活动 渭河流域 |
| 英文关键词: drought comprehensive drought index Copula function sunspot activity Weihe River basin |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51709221）；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0405901-2）；国家重点实验室培育项目（2016ZZKT-11）；陕西省水利科技计划项目（2017slkj-19） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2479 |
| 全文下载次数: 1947 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 干旱指数是研究干旱的重要工具，构建综合干旱指数是目前干旱监测、风险评估的前沿和趋势。本文基于阿基米德Copula函数，联合降雨（气象）、径流（水文）两种要素，构建了一种能够综合表征气象干旱和水文干旱的新型综合干旱指数MSDIp，并用其表征渭河流域的干旱演变特征，且进一步对其背后的驱动力进行了探究。结果表明：（1）MSDIp指数既能像标准化降水指数（SPI）一样敏锐地捕捉干旱的发生，也能像标准化径流指数（SRI）一样很好地刻画干旱的持续时间和结束，同时具备气象和水文两种干旱指数表征不同类型干旱的优势，能综合表征干旱演变特征；（2）受气候变化和人类活动影响，渭河流域过去50余年综合干旱呈显著增强趋势；（3）渭河流域综合干旱指数序列存在变异点（1994年），且未来流域干旱情势有加剧趋势；（4）太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子等对渭河流域综合干旱的发生有较大影响，其中太阳黑子活动的影响最强。且除直接影响外，太阳黑子还能通过影响大气环流异常因子进而对综合干旱的发生造成间接影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Drought index is an important tool for the study of drought,and the construction of comprehensive drought index is the frontier and trend of drought monitoring and risk assessment.Based on Archimedes's Copula function,combined rainfall (Meteorology) and runoff (Hydrology),we constructed a new comprehensive drought index (MSDIp) that can comprehensively characterize the meteorology drought and hydrology drought.It is used to characterize the characteristics of drought evolution in the Weihe River basin. The results indicate that:(1) the MSDIp index can not only capture the occurrence of drought as well as the standardized precipitation index (SPI),but also describe the duration and termination of drought as well as the standardized runoff index (SRI).It possesses the advantages of both meteorological index and hydrological drought index in characterizing drought,which can comprehensively characterize the characteristics of drought evolution.(2) Influenced by climate changing and human activities,the comprehensive drought in the Weihe basin has increased significantly over the past 50 years.(3) There is a change point in the comprehensive drought index sequence of the Weihe basin (1994),and in the future,the risk of drought is increasing.(4) Sunspot and atmospheric circulation anomaly factors have great influence on the occurrence of comprehensive drought in the Weihe basin,of which sunspot activity is the strongest.In addition to the direct influence,sunspot can also influence the occurrence of comprehensive drought by affecting the atmospheric circulation anomaly factors. |
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