| 吴旭树,郭生练,巴欢欢,何邵坤,熊丰.基于海温多极指标的长期降水预报方法[J].水利学报,2018,49(10):1276-1283 |
| 基于海温多极指标的长期降水预报方法 |
| Long-range precipitation forecasting based on multi-pole sea surface temperature |
| 投稿时间：2018-06-09 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180544 |
| 中文关键词: 月降水 长期预报 海温多极指标 长江上游 |
| 英文关键词: monthly precipitation long-range forecasting multi-pole method the upper Yangtze River |
| 基金项目:国家十三五重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0402206）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（51539009） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 准确的长期定量降水预报对水库防洪兴利综合调度具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文提出基于海温多极指标的长期定量降水预报方法，并以长江上游区间为例进行应用和检验。结果表明：海温多极指标能有效预报长江上游1961—2017年汛期（5—10月）的月降水量。相比于传统的单元、多元线性回归和典型相关分析方法，该方法更为稳健、预报精度较高，特别在初汛及后汛期月降水量预报上，具有显著的优越性。研究成果可以为三峡水库防洪兴利调度决策提供科技支撑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Long-range precipitation forecasting is very important for reservoir flooding control and comprehensive utilization operation. However, due to the complexity of weather system, existing approaches for long-range precipitation forecasting suffer from relatively large biases, and consequently they are still inadequate to provide enough references in practice. This study proposed a multi-pole method based on sea surface temperature to forecast long-range precipitation, and applied it to the upper Yangtze River. The results indicate that the multi-pole method is able to forecast monthly precipitation during flooding seasons from 1961 to 2017. Compared to the traditional linear regression, multi linear regression and canonical correlation analysis methods, the multi-pole method is more robust and accurate, particularly during the early and late periods of flooding season. |
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