| 周建中,顿晓晗,张勇传.基于库容风险频率曲线的水库群联合防洪调度研究[J].水利学报,2019,50(11):1318-1325 |
| 基于库容风险频率曲线的水库群联合防洪调度研究 |
| Study on joint flood control dispatching of reservoir groups based on reservoir capacity risk frequency curve |
| 投稿时间：2019-06-26 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190457 |
| 中文关键词: 联合防洪调度 库容频率曲线 风险分析 决策优选 |
| 英文关键词: joint flood control dispatching reservoir capacity frequency curve risk analysis decision-making optimization |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点项目（91547208）；国家自然科学基金雅砻江联合研究基金重点项目（U1865202） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水库实时防洪调度决策是一类多目标、多阶段、多约束的复杂决策问题，风险分析是实时防洪决策的重要环节和依据，本文提出一种基于防洪库容风险频率曲线的梯级水库群防洪风险共担理论及水库风险-调度-决策理论体系，并结合溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡水库实际情况，运用自主研发的梯级水库群联合防洪调度风险分析模型，分析梯级水库群在汛期不同时段的防洪风险，并将风险率引入实时防洪调度决策，以期为水库群防洪调度提供决策依据，提高联合防洪调度系统综合利用效益。研究表明，实时调度过程中考虑风险率因素能够在保证防洪安全的同时有效提高水库群综合效益，风险-调度-决策理论能够为水库群调度方案优选提供依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Real-time flood control operation decision-making of reservoirs is a complex decision-making problem with multi-objective, multi-stage and multi-constraints. Risk analysis is an important link and basis for real-time flood control decision-making. This paper presents a theory system of risk-sharing and reservoir risk-dispatching-decision-making for cascade reservoirs based on the frequency curve of flood control reservoir capacity. Combining with the actual situation of Xiluodu,Xiangjiaba and Three Gorges Reservoirs, the flood control risk of cascade reservoirs in different periods of flood season is analyzed by using self-developed risk analysis model of joint flood control operation of cascade reservoirs,and the risk rate is introduced into real-time flood control operation decision-making, in order to provide decision-making basis for flood control operation of reservoirs and improve the comprehensive utilization benefit of joint flood control operation system. The results show that considering risk factor in real-time dispatching can effectively improve the comprehensive benefits of reservoirs while ensuring flood control safety. The risk-dispatching-decision theory can provide basis for the optimization of reservoir dispatching schemes. |
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