| 明波,李研,刘攀,王义民,马川惠,黄强.嵌套短期弃电风险的水光互补中长期优化调度研究[J].水利学报,2021,52(6):712-722 |
| 嵌套短期弃电风险的水光互补中长期优化调度研究 |
| Long-term optimal operation of hydro-solar hybrid energy systems nested with short-term energy curtailment risk |
| 投稿时间：2020-08-21 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20200659 |
| 中文关键词: 水光互补 弃电 中长期调度 调度规则 年末消落水位 |
| 英文关键词: hydro-solar hybrid energy systems energy curtailment medium and long-term operation operating rules end-of-year water level |
| 基金项目:博士后创新人才支持计划项目（BX20200276）；中国博士后科学基金项目（2020M673453）；国家自然科学基金项目（52009098，U1865201，U1965202） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 传统水光互补中长期调度模型未考虑光电的短期随机波动性，忽略了短期弃电风险，由此制订的调度规则难以有效协调光电消纳与流域水资源综合管理。本文提出嵌套短期弃电风险的水光互补中长期优化调度方法。首先，分析水电与光电联合运行过程中可能产生的弃电情形，并对弃电损失进行量化；其次，基于日调度模型的多情景分析制订中长期弃电损失函数，以定量表征水电出力与光伏弃电率之间的关系；最后，将弃电损失函数嵌套在中长期优化调度模型中，推导互补系统的适应性调度规则，识别水库年末消落水位关键控制因子。以龙羊峡水光互补工程为实例，研究表明：（1）弃电损失函数呈S形，水电出力过低或过高均不利于光电消纳；（2）月末水位/库容为输出变量、可用能量为输入变量的调度函数能较好地指导水光互补中长期调度；（3）互补情景下水库年末消落水位受年初水位、当年水流入能和当年水电站发电量显著影响，而受光伏年发电量影响较小。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Traditional medium and long-term operation model of hydro-solar hybrid energy system does not consider the short-term random fluctuating feature of the solar power and ignores the short-term energy curtailment risk,so the operating rules formulated by such model are difficult to effectively coordinate the integrated water resources management and the solar photovoltaic (PV) power's integration into the power grid. In this paper, a medium and long-term optimal operation model, nested with short-term energy curtailment risk, is proposed for the hydro-solar hybrid energy system. Firstly, the possible situations were analyzed when the PV energy would be curtailed during the joint operation process of hydropower and PV power, and the energy loss was quantified using mathematical formulas. Secondly,energy loss functions that characterized the relationship between the hydropower output and PV curtailment rate were derived based on short-term operation simulations. Thirdly, the energy loss function was incorporated into a long-term optimal operation model, yielding adaptive operating rules, as well as key factors that influenced end-of-year reservoir water levels. A case study was carried out using the Longyangxia hydro-solar hybrid energy system in China. The results show that:(1) the PV energy-loss function is S-shaped,indicating that the PV curtailment rate would be high when the hydropower output was too low or too high;(2) the operating rules with carryover water level/storage as the output variable and available energy as the input variable could offer better guidance for the long-term operation of the hydro-solar hybrid energy system;(3) The end-of-year water level is mainly influenced by the water level at the beginning of the year, the water inflow represented in energy form and hydropower production in that year, but it has little correlation with PV power production in that year. |
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