| 陈波,刘庭赫,黄梓莘,吴中如.库岸边坡运行的实时风险率量化模型和预警方法[J].水利学报,2022,53(3):333-347 |
| 库岸边坡运行的实时风险率量化模型和预警方法 |
| Real-time risk rate quantitative model and early warning method for bank slope operation |
| 投稿时间：2022-03-15 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20210949 |
| 中文关键词: 库岸边坡 安全监测 实时 风险率 预警 |
| 英文关键词: bank slope of reservoir safety monitoring real-time risk rate early warning |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(51739003);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079049) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 库岸高边坡是状态实时变化的复杂系统，直接参考现行设计规范或套用传统可靠度方法拟定预警指标，都难以反映和捕捉工程动态演变特征。为此，将原位监测资料融入工程风险率分析方法，提出了库岸边坡运行的实时风险率量化模型和预警方法。首先，基于实测资料建立了边坡安全时空回归模型，借助回归模型的误差正态分布特征，构建了边坡运行实时风险率量化模型；然后，联系概率可靠度理论和现行结构可靠性设计统一标准，制定了反映工程等别和安全级别的边坡风险率客观评价标准；最后，引入质量控制图，定量设计了库岸边坡运行警情状态的两类实时风险率指标，实现了利用边坡安全监测资料实时转化工程运行风险率和动态监控边坡警情。成果可为库岸边坡运行状态实时监控提供新思路。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The high slope of reservoir bank is a complex system，whose state changes in real time. It is difficult to reflect the dynamic evolution characteristics of engineering，to draw up the early warning index by referring to the current design specifications or applying the traditional reliability method. Therefore，the real-time risk rate quantitative model and early warning method of the bank slope operation are proposed，by integrating the monitoring data into the engineering risk rate analysis method. Firstly，a temporal and spatial regression model of slope safety is established based on the measured data，and a quantitative model of real-time risk rate of slope operation is established，by using the error normal distribution characteristics of the regression model. Secondly，the objective evaluation standard of slope risk rate reflecting the engineering grade and safety level is established by combining probability reliability theory and uniform standard of structural reliability design. Finally， the quality control chart is introduced to quantitatively design the two-level real-time risk rate index of the bank slope operation warning condition. The results can transform the slope safety monitoring data into the risk rate of engineering operation in real time and dynamically monitor the slope warning situation，which provides a new idea for the real-time monitoring of slope operation status. |
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