文章摘要
1982-2015年永定河山区植被变化及对天然径流的影响分析
Analysis of vegetation change and its impact on natural runoff in the mountain area of Yongding River from 1982 to 2015
投稿时间:2021-03-02  修订日期:2021-09-02
DOI:
中文关键词: 永定河山区  NDVI  地理加权回归模型  降水  平均气温  Budyko方程  天然径流
英文关键词: NDVI  GWR model  precipitation  average temperature  residual  natural runoff
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)北京市科技计划课题(Z191100006919002);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2020-ZD-20)
作者单位邮编
杜勇 天津大学永定河流域投资有限公司 100048
冯平 天津大学 
牛凯杰 南京水利科学研究院 
李建柱 天津大学 300072
胡庆芳 南京水利科学研究院 
郑彦辰 天津大学 
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中文摘要:
      采用NDVI和气温、降水、径流等监测资料,在分析永定河山区NDVI时空变化的基础上,通过构建地理加权回归模型,研究了流域内NDVI和降水、平均气温的回归参数及残差的空间关系特征,定量估算了永定河山区NDVI变化对天然径流量衰减的影响。结果发现: 1982-2015年永定河山区在土地利用格局总体变化不大的情况下,年、季尺度的NDVI均显著增加,NDVI和降水、平均气温的空间回归参数及残差的均值、趋势均具有显著的空间异质性,降水、气温等气候因素和人类活动对NDVI均表现为促进作用,但各影响因素趋势变化的时空分布差异显著。永定河山区天然径流量具有显著的衰减趋势,结合Budyko方程发现流域天然径流量对植被变化具有高度敏感性,以植被变化为突出特征的下垫面变化对永定河天然径流衰减的贡献率达到了80%,流域植被保护和水土保持对天然径流量衰减的这种影响应给予高度重视。
英文摘要:
      Based on the monitoring data of NDVI, precipitation, average temperature and runoff, by constructing geographically weighted regression model, the spatial relationship between NDVI and precipitation, average temperature and residual was studied,then the influence of NDVI change on natural runoff attenuation was quantitatively estimated. The results show that: the overall change of land use pattern in the mountain area of Yongding River was small from 1982 to 2015, while NDVI of vegetation increases significantly at both annual and seasonal scales. The mean values and their trends of spatial regression parameters, residual of NDVI and precipitation(average temperature) have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and the regression parameters and mean residual values are positive at different time scales, and their trends fluctuate obviously. It indicated that precipitation, average temperature and human activities all promote NDVI, but the influence trend of each factor has significant difference. The natural runoff has a significant attenuation trend, and the contribution rate of the natural runoff attenuation of typical section is about 80% due to underlying surface change with the increase of NDVI, which is verified that the runoff yield is highly sensitive to vegetation change by Budyko equation.
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