Page 85 - 2022年第53卷第6期
P. 85

Standardizationindexevaluationmethodbasedonthecomplexitytheoryof
                                                hydropowerstationgroup

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                       CHENGXiong ,LINXiaobin,ZHONGHao,LIUJi,NIUWenjing,CHENShu                   2
                    (1.HubeiProvincialKeyLaboratoryforConstructionandManagementofHydropowerProject(ChinaThreeGorgesUniversity),
                        Yichang 443000,China;2.CollegeofHydraulic&EnvironmentalEngineering,ChinaThreeGorgesUniversity,
                        Yichang 443002,China;3.CollegeofElectricalEngineeringandNewEnergy,ChinaThreeGorgesUniversity,
                     Yichang 443002,China;4.BureauofHydrology,ChangjiangWaterResourcesCommission,Wuhan 430010,China)
                  Abstract:Atpresent,thedevelopmentfocusofhydropowerenterprisesinChinahasgraduallyshiftedfromstriving
                  fornewprojectstothekeystageoffinemanagementofstockassets.Inordertopromotehydropowerenterprisesto
                  carryoutpeerbenchmarkingandimprovethemanagementlevelofenterprises,itisurgenttoestablishasetof
                  benchmarkingevaluationmethodthatcanadapttodifferentcharacteristicsofhydropowerstations.Therefore ,this
                  paperproposesastandardizedindexevaluationmethodbasedonthecomplexitytheoryofhydropowerstations.The
                  basicprincipleofthismethodistoselecttheincomeandcostindicatorsrelatedtohydropowerstationsaccordingtothe
                  incomeandcostdriversofhydropowerstations ,conductdimensionlesstreatmentoftheindicators.Themultiple
                  linearregressionmethodisusedtoselectindexes ,andthentheselectedindexesareanalyzedbymultiplelinear
                  regressionuntilthedependentvariableandindependentvariableareinastraightlinetodeterminetheweightofeach
                  index.Thenthecomplexstrengthvalueformulaisusedtocalculatethecomprehensivemulti - indexcomplexstrength
                  valueofeachhydropowerstation,andtheevaluationiscarriedoutfrom fivecomprehensivedimensions:single
                  stationincomelevel ,singlestationexpenditurelevel,incomeefficiency,operationandmaintenanceefficiencyand
                  comprehensiveprofitability.Finally ,thequartilemethodisusedformulti - angleanalysisofhydropowerstationsto
                  achievebenchmarkingevaluationoftheincomeandexpenditurelevel ,managementefficiencyandcomprehensive
                  profitabilityofhydropowerstations.Atotalof69hydropowerstationsinLancangRiver,DaduRiver,YalongRiverand
                  JinshaRiverBasinareselectedastheresearchobjects.Theresultsshowthattheproposedevaluationmodelcanevaluate
                  differenthydropowerstationsatthesamelevel ,whichhasimportantguidingsignificanceforfindingtheoperationand
                  managementgapofhydropowerenterprisesandimprovingtheoperationperformanceofhydropowerenterprises.
                  Keywords:complextheory; benchmarkingevaluation; multiplelinearregression method; quartileranking;
                  cascadehydropowerstations
                                                                                    (责任编辑:于福亮)


              (上接第 696页)
                        Componentanalysisandstochasticsimulationofprecipitationseriesin
                                            Beijingduringthelast300years

                                                MENBaohui,ZHANGTeng
                     (SchoolofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineering,NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Beijing 102206,China)

                  Abstract:Underthebackgroundofglobalwarming,theunevenspatialandtemporaldistributionofprecipitation
                  hasledtoincreasinglyseriousproblemssuchaswaterscarcityinsomeareas ,soitisparticularlyimportanttoana
                  lyzetheregionallong - termprecipitationchangepatternsandevolutiontrendsreasonablyandaccurately.Thepre
                  cipitationseriesofdifferentlengthswereconstructedbasedontheprecipitationtimeseriesdataofBeijingfrom1724
                  to2019 ,theBS - Pettittcouplingmodelandthepolesymmetrymodaldecompositionalgorithmwereusedtoanalyze
                  thecomponentsoftheprecipitationseries ,andtherandomforestalgorithmwasusedtosimulatethemstochastically.
                  Basedontheultra - longprecipitationtimeseries ,theoverallannualprecipitationvariationinBeijingshowsan“in
                  creasing - stable - decreasing ”trend,andtherearesixabruptchangepointsinthetimedomain,namely1770,
                  1813,1871,1893,1947and1999.Intermsofcyclicalvariation,andthereisaquasi - cyclicalfluctuation
                  patternof2.5 - 4years ,7 - 15years,25 - 35years,74yearsand95 - 100yearsinthefrequencydomain,andthe
                  longtimeseriesshowastrongadvantageinbothcomponentanalysisandstochasticsimulationofprecipitationseries.
                  Keywords:analysisofprecipitationseries;longtimeseries;Pettittmutationtest;extreme - pointsymmetric
                  modedecomposition ;randomforest
                                                                                    (责任编辑:耿庆斋)

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