Page 85 - 2022年第53卷第6期
P. 85
Standardizationindexevaluationmethodbasedonthecomplexitytheoryof
hydropowerstationgroup
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CHENGXiong ,LINXiaobin,ZHONGHao,LIUJi,NIUWenjing,CHENShu 2
(1.HubeiProvincialKeyLaboratoryforConstructionandManagementofHydropowerProject(ChinaThreeGorgesUniversity),
Yichang 443000,China;2.CollegeofHydraulic&EnvironmentalEngineering,ChinaThreeGorgesUniversity,
Yichang 443002,China;3.CollegeofElectricalEngineeringandNewEnergy,ChinaThreeGorgesUniversity,
Yichang 443002,China;4.BureauofHydrology,ChangjiangWaterResourcesCommission,Wuhan 430010,China)
Abstract:Atpresent,thedevelopmentfocusofhydropowerenterprisesinChinahasgraduallyshiftedfromstriving
fornewprojectstothekeystageoffinemanagementofstockassets.Inordertopromotehydropowerenterprisesto
carryoutpeerbenchmarkingandimprovethemanagementlevelofenterprises,itisurgenttoestablishasetof
benchmarkingevaluationmethodthatcanadapttodifferentcharacteristicsofhydropowerstations.Therefore ,this
paperproposesastandardizedindexevaluationmethodbasedonthecomplexitytheoryofhydropowerstations.The
basicprincipleofthismethodistoselecttheincomeandcostindicatorsrelatedtohydropowerstationsaccordingtothe
incomeandcostdriversofhydropowerstations ,conductdimensionlesstreatmentoftheindicators.Themultiple
linearregressionmethodisusedtoselectindexes ,andthentheselectedindexesareanalyzedbymultiplelinear
regressionuntilthedependentvariableandindependentvariableareinastraightlinetodeterminetheweightofeach
index.Thenthecomplexstrengthvalueformulaisusedtocalculatethecomprehensivemulti - indexcomplexstrength
valueofeachhydropowerstation,andtheevaluationiscarriedoutfrom fivecomprehensivedimensions:single
stationincomelevel ,singlestationexpenditurelevel,incomeefficiency,operationandmaintenanceefficiencyand
comprehensiveprofitability.Finally ,thequartilemethodisusedformulti - angleanalysisofhydropowerstationsto
achievebenchmarkingevaluationoftheincomeandexpenditurelevel ,managementefficiencyandcomprehensive
profitabilityofhydropowerstations.Atotalof69hydropowerstationsinLancangRiver,DaduRiver,YalongRiverand
JinshaRiverBasinareselectedastheresearchobjects.Theresultsshowthattheproposedevaluationmodelcanevaluate
differenthydropowerstationsatthesamelevel ,whichhasimportantguidingsignificanceforfindingtheoperationand
managementgapofhydropowerenterprisesandimprovingtheoperationperformanceofhydropowerenterprises.
Keywords:complextheory; benchmarkingevaluation; multiplelinearregression method; quartileranking;
cascadehydropowerstations
(责任编辑:于福亮)
(上接第 696页)
Componentanalysisandstochasticsimulationofprecipitationseriesin
Beijingduringthelast300years
MENBaohui,ZHANGTeng
(SchoolofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineering,NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Beijing 102206,China)
Abstract:Underthebackgroundofglobalwarming,theunevenspatialandtemporaldistributionofprecipitation
hasledtoincreasinglyseriousproblemssuchaswaterscarcityinsomeareas ,soitisparticularlyimportanttoana
lyzetheregionallong - termprecipitationchangepatternsandevolutiontrendsreasonablyandaccurately.Thepre
cipitationseriesofdifferentlengthswereconstructedbasedontheprecipitationtimeseriesdataofBeijingfrom1724
to2019 ,theBS - Pettittcouplingmodelandthepolesymmetrymodaldecompositionalgorithmwereusedtoanalyze
thecomponentsoftheprecipitationseries ,andtherandomforestalgorithmwasusedtosimulatethemstochastically.
Basedontheultra - longprecipitationtimeseries ,theoverallannualprecipitationvariationinBeijingshowsan“in
creasing - stable - decreasing ”trend,andtherearesixabruptchangepointsinthetimedomain,namely1770,
1813,1871,1893,1947and1999.Intermsofcyclicalvariation,andthereisaquasi - cyclicalfluctuation
patternof2.5 - 4years ,7 - 15years,25 - 35years,74yearsand95 - 100yearsinthefrequencydomain,andthe
longtimeseriesshowastrongadvantageinbothcomponentanalysisandstochasticsimulationofprecipitationseries.
Keywords:analysisofprecipitationseries;longtimeseries;Pettittmutationtest;extreme - pointsymmetric
modedecomposition ;randomforest
(责任编辑:耿庆斋)
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