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［ 30］ 钱镜林，柳卓 . 次洪降雨过程系统聚类分析［C］/中国原水论坛专辑：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》 编辑
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Influence of rainfall characteristics on the flooding process during flood
events in the Three Gorges Reservoir
1 1 2 3 2 4
ZHANG Wei ，LI Xin ，ZHAI Shaojun ，SHI Yulong ，LIU Xinbo ，DONG Bingjiang
（1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and management，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China；
2. Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze River and Hydroelectricity Science，Yichang 443002，China；
3. Basin Hub Operation and Management Centre，China Three Gorges Corporation，Yichang 443133，China；
4. Hydrology Bureau，Yangtze River Water Resources Commission，Wuhan 430010，China）
Abstract：Investigating the intrinsic link between rainfall intensity，its spatio-temporal distribution，and the flood
process is crucial for enhancing flood forecasting precision，optimizing reservoir operations，and devising flood miti⁃
gation strategies. In order to deepen understanding of the nonlinear response relationship between rainfall characteris⁃
tics and flood processes upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR），this study employed mathematical statis⁃
tics，K-means clustering，and random forest models to analyze the interaction between rainfall characteristics and
flood processes based on the flow data from the Cuntan station and corresponding basin rainfall data from 2003 to
2020. The study's key findings indicate that the rainfall-driven flood classification method identifies the watershed
above Cuntan with five types of rainfall patterns and their corresponding flood processes，and the method can effec⁃
tively differentiate between total flood amount，peak flow and rise-fall ephemeris，which is suitable for watersheds
with scarce data. Rainfall intensity and base flow emerge as the principal determinants of floods entering the TGR，
contributing 48.45% and 36.25%，respectively，while the impact of rainfall timing differences and spatial distribu⁃
tion is relatively small. Basal flow is the common key factor of total flood volume and peak flood flow，with contribu⁃
tion rates ranging from 20% to 43%，and the contribution of rainfall to total flood volume and peak flood flow is asyn⁃
chronous. This research deepens the comprehension of rainfall characteristics and flood genesis mechanisms in the
upper Yangtze River basin，offering a scientific foundation for flood control and disaster reduction efforts in the region
and comparable areas.
Keywords：Three Gorges Reservoir；flood events；rainfall characteristics；spatial and temporal distribution；flood
classification
（责任编辑：耿庆斋）
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