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Analysis of the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of water consumption in
China from 1990 to 2021

HE Guohua，ZHAO Yong，LI Wenqing，QIN Changhai，WANG Hao，HE Fan

（State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin，China Institute of

Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China）

Abstract：Assessing the real water use demand from the consumption side is helpful to scientifically understand the
pattern of water supply and demand. Based on the input-output data of 190 economies in the world from 1990 to

s
2021，this paper analyzes the evolution of China’ water consumption in the past 30 years by optimizing and improv⁃

ing the calculation method of water use coefficient，and identifies the key driving factors of the change in water con⁃
sumption. The results show that China’s virtual water trade changed from net export to net import in 2014. At pres⁃
ent，the virtual water imported by China mainly comes from agricultural products in developing countries，while the

virtual water exported mainly flows to light industry and machinery and equipment manufacturing in developed econo⁃

mies. According to China's Water Resources Bulletin，despite a continuous decline in total water consumption since
2013，considering the net import of virtual water，the scale of national water consumption has increased steadily over

3
the past 30 years，reaching 636.32 billion m in 2021，exceeding the actual statistical water consumption by 44.3 bil⁃

lion m . Currently，China's per capita water consumption is 450.5 m ，of which domestic supply contributes 92.7%，
3
3

while international trade contributes 7.3%. Compared to population growth，consumption levels and water-saving effi⁃

ciency have a more significant impact on changes in water consumption，serving as the dominant factors determining

the variation in China's water consumption over the past 30 years. Based on the research findings，this study analyzes

the supporting role and potential risks of international trade in safeguarding China's water consumption，and demon⁃
strates the uncertainties associated with the research results.

Keywords：international trade；water consumption；virtual water；evolution characteristics；uncertainty

（责任编辑：韩 昆）
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