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Impact analysis of historical extreme drought recurrence under the current defense
conditions：Taking Chongzhen drought in the Ming Dynasty as an example

1，2 1，2 1，2 1，2 1，2
QU Yanping ，YANG Xiaojing ，SU Zhicheng LÜ Juan ，ZHANG Weibing
（1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China;
2. Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction， Beijing 100038，China）

Abstract： Research on the recurrence of historical extreme drought events can provide support for the
drought disaster mitigation under extreme conditions， and it’s of great strategic significance. A set of Im⁃
pact analysis method for historical extreme drought events recurrence has been proposed in this paper. By
taking Chongzhen drought in the Ming Dynasty as an example， the potential impacts of this extreme
drought under the current defense conditions has been analyzed， including impact on water resources， wa⁃
ter supply security and food security. The results show that under the current conditions of physical geogra⁃
phy and water conservancy projects， once an extreme drought like the Chongzhen drought occurred for 7
consecutive years， the average annual water shortage rate of 9 provinces and cities in the severe
drought-stricken region will be 21.9% ， and the highest will reach 38.7% . The average annual grain yield
reduction rate will be 27.7% ， the highest will reach 39.2% . The average annual direct economic loss due
to drought will account for 5.3% of the regional GDP，the highest will be 11.1%. The average annual pro⁃
portion of the national GDP will account for 2.2%，the highest will reach 4.53%. It can be seen that once
historical extreme drought events occur，serious water shortage will pose a major threat to water supply se⁃
curity， food security and economic security. Therefore， it is necessary to attach great importance to it and
make preparedness for catastrophe drought disaster risk.
Keywords：extreme drought event；Chongzhen drought；recurrence；impact analysis

（责任编辑：杨 虹）

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