Page 18 - 水利学报2021年第52卷第5期

Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River diversion
irrigation district based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential

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JIN Juliang 1，2 ，SHEN Shixing 1，2 ，CUI Yi 1，2 ，ZHANG Xiuyu ，HE Piao ，NING Shaowei 1，2
（1. School of Civil Engineering，Hefei University of Technology，Hefei 230009，China；
2. Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering，Hefei University of Technology，Hefei 230009，China；
3. College of Water Resources，North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power，Zhengzhou 450046，China）

Abstract： In order to deal with the uncertainty between evaluation sample and evaluation criterion in the
dynamic assessment of water resources carrying capacity， and to analyze and identify the physical mecha⁃
nism of regional water resources carrying state and its change， a semipartial subtraction set pair potential
method for dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River diversion irrigation
district （SSSPP） was established. The results of SSSPP applied to Dagong irrigation district in Henan Prov⁃
ince showed that as follows：（1） From the perspective of carrying capacity system，the overall carrying sta⁃
tus in the irrigation district was improved， and the trend was more obvious since 2013. In 2017， all the
five counties of the irrigation district were in the water resources critical overload status. Furthermore， the
farther away from the main stream of the Yellow River， the worse the carrying states of the counties. （2）
From the perspective of carrying capacity subsystem，the carrying support force of each county was slightly
deteriorated， which was the primary reason to limit the improvement of carrying capacity in the irrigation
district. In addition， the carrying pressure force decreased in fluctuation， and the carrying regulation force
was significantly enhanced. （3） From the perspective of carrying capacity evaluation index， the support
force indexes， available amount of water resources per capita and the utilization rate of water resources of
each county were always in inverse potential. The pressure force indexes，GDP per capita and water short⁃
age rate were in inverse potential or partial inverse potential for a long time. These four indexes were the
key objects of water resources carrying capacity regulation and control for the irrigation district. Moreover，
the regulation force indexes，the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water and the rate of ecological
and environment water utilization developed from inverse potential to partial identical potential or identical
potential in some counties. These were the main reasons for the increase of their carrying capacity and re⁃
flected the management and control of agricultural and ecological water use. It can be seen that SSSPP can
quantitatively analyze the water resources carrying status and its evolution characteristics in the Yellow Riv⁃
er diversion irrigation district from three levels of carrying capacity system， subsystem and evaluation in⁃
dex，respectively. It not only can measure the carrying capacity in the irrigation district，but also can diag⁃
nose the crucial subsystems and indexes that affect the carrying capacity. The connotation of semipartial sub⁃
traction set pair potential is more explanatory， the method is more intuitive and the calculation is easier，
it is an improved subtraction set pair potential under the comprehensive theories of subtraction set pair po⁃
tential and first-order effect total partial connection number， which provides a new effective way for accu⁃
rately identifying the state and development trend of set system， such as dynamic evaluation of resources，
environment and ecology carrying capacity.
Keywords：evaluation of water resources carrying capacity；Yellow River diversion irrigation district；vulner⁃
ability diagnosis；set pair analysis；semipartial subtraction set pair potential；connection number

（责任编辑：杨 虹）

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