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Long-term optimal operation of reservoir considering the water spillage risk during
the impoundment period

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CAO Rui ，CHENG Chuntian ，SHEN Jianjian ，JIANG Yan ，ZHANG Congtong 2
（1. Dalian University of Technology，Dalian 116024，China；
2. Yunnan Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center，Kunming 650000，China）
Abstract： The large volatility of short-term inflow makes the long-term operation of the reservoir face a
greater risk of water spillage, which is an important factor that affects the rationality of the long-term opera⁃
tion of the reservoir. Considering the impact of daily inflow fluctuations, a quantitative evaluation method
for the water spillage risk during the impoundment period is proposed, and a long-term optimal operation
model for the reservoir considering the water spillage risk is established. Incorporating with the minimum
risk rules, we take the non-storage spillage as the risk indicator and use historical daily inflow data to cal⁃
culate the possible water spillage risk for each month of the impoundment period. The Copula model is
used to construct the joint distribution and conditional probability distribution of the monthly average inflow
and the water spillage risk, so as to obtain the risk confidence interval for the specific inflow condition. Fi⁃
nally, the water spillage risk is integrated into the long-term optimization model in the form of energy loss
to obtain a more practical operation plan. The controlling reservoir Xiaowan in the Lancang River Basin is
used as an example to simulate the operation. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can
effectively reduce the water spillage risk in long-term operation of the reservoir and improve the operability
of the optimization results. Compared with the conventional method, the proposed method can reduce the av⁃
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erage annual spillage by about 476×10 m and increase the power generation by about 115×10 kW·h.
Keywords：controlling reservoir；optimal operation；water spillage risk；Copula model；conditional distribution
（责任编辑：杨 虹）

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