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Bayesian estimation method for grading characteristic parameters of sand-gravel dam materi⁃
al under small sample condition

1 1 1 2 3
LIU Biao ，ZHAO Yufei ，CHEN Zuyu ，WANG Yi ，WANG Wenbo
（1. China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin，
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China；
2. Sinohydro Bureau 8 Co.，Ltd.，Changsha 410007，China；
3. Sinohydro Bureau 6 Co，Ltd.，Shenyang 110179，China）

Abstract：The dry density of dam-building materials has strong gradation correlation，which is particularly
affected by some grading characteristic parameters such as P5 content，maximum particle size and curva⁃
ture coefficient. However，in practical engineering，the grading parameters of dam materials are usually ob⁃
tained by screening the dam materials excavated from the quality test pit after the rolling construction. For
a certain filling unit，there are few detected data from test pits in the filling construction area，so the ex⁃
isting compaction quality model of earthwork in the dam compaction monitoring system cannot effectively
consider the impact of gradation characteristic parameters on compaction density. In view of this，in order
to construct population distribution of the grading characteristic parameters of the dam filling material，this
paper takes the small sample data of grading characteristic parameters obtained from test pits sampling of
the asphalt concrete core sand-gravel dam of the Dashimen Water Conservancy Project as the research ob⁃
ject. Firstly，the Weibull distribution was selected as the small sample data distribution through goodness-
of-fit tests. Secondly，the parameterized Bootstrap method and the non-parametric kernel density estimation
method were used to determine the prior distribution under small sample data. Furthermore，the posterior
distribution of parameters is obtained by modifying the prior distribution with the Bayesian method com⁃
bined with the excavation test data of a certain work unit quality inspection on site. Finally， the mixed
Gibbs sampling method is used to simulate and solve the posterior distribution，and the estimation results
of two-parameter posterior Weibull distribution based on Bayesian theory are obtained，which provides im⁃
portant data support for real-time and accurate evaluation of the compaction characteristics of sand-gravel
dam materials during the construction of the dam.
Keywords：gradation characteristic parameters；small sample data；Weibull distribution；Bayesian method；
Mixed Gibbs sampling
（责任编辑：耿庆斋）

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