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Comprehensive benefit evaluation and prediction for Phase I of the East and
Middle Routes of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

1，2 1 1 1 1 1

YANG Mingming ，ZHAO Yong ，QIN Changhai ，ZHU Yongnan ，HE Guohua ，WANG Lizhen

（1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin，China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower

Research，Beijing 100038，China；2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources，Hohai University，Nanjing 210098，China）

Abstract：The inter-basin water diversion project has a long construction period，large investment scale，and wide

impact range，and its comprehensive benefits are often difficult to define clearly. From the perspective of the whole

life cycle，this paper reviews the path of project benefits，constructs an evaluation method based on factor-driven
analysis，and combines it with a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of

Phase I of the East and Middle Routes of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from 2003 to 2023，and to simu⁃
late and predict the water supply benefits under different water supply growth rate scenarios from 2024 to 2035. The

results show that by the end of 2023，the Phase I Project of the East and Middle Routes had accumulated a total posi⁃

tive benefit of 2.349 trillion RMB，mainly comprising investment，water supply，and ecological benefits；the nega⁃

tive impact amounted to 252.5 billion RMB，primarily attributed to lost industrial development opportunities and

reduced water ecosystem capacity. The cumulative net benefit of the project is 2096.5 billion RMB，of which social
and economic benefits account for 75% and ecological benefits account 25%. Since 2020，with the continuous

advancement of industrial adjustment policies and governance projects，the ratio of negative to positive benefits of the
project has dropped from 0.15 in 2006 to 0.05. The simulation results of the SNWDP-DCGE model show that from
2024 to 2035，the project will generate a total of 3.778 trillion RMB in water supply benefits under the high-speed

growth water supply scenario，which are 1.10 and 1.21 times of those under the low-speed and medium-speed growth

water supply scenarios，respectively. A long series of evaluations of the comprehensive benefits of water diversion

projects from a full life cycle perspective will help to fully and objectively understand their multiple impacts.

Keywords：South-to-North Water Diversion Project；social and economic benefits；ecological benefits；CGE Model
（责任编辑：韩 昆）
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